This is a guest post by Full time tennis trader Peter Scott of Dynamic Tennis Trading.
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A big mistake that many tennis trading novices can make is the thought that you can just flick on the TV and trade any match that is in-play. Every week there are new tennis tournaments starting which present plenty of opportunities to make profits and here are some tips on how I approach each tournament before a weeks worth of trading.
Look At Tournament Trends
First thing is to look at some of the trends that this tournament has thrown up. I know some traders who go all out and will research the number of favourites who get beaten at said tournament over the past 5 years and similar trends. However, things I like to look for are the “top seeds” who do not regularly do well at this partiuclarly tournament and vice versa. Since if a player did not play well at this tournament the previous year there is usually a reason for that and you can expect a similar performance this year. This could be that a player just does not like playing in a certain country or continent or just that the timing of the tournament is not good for them.
For example, Sam Stosur has been in the top 10 WTA seeds regularly over the previous 10 years which usually makes her favourite in the early rounds against lower seeds. However, when she plays in Wimbledon she has never made it past the 3rd round and has gone out in the 1st round 6 times. This tells me there is something she clearly does not enjoy about playing in South West London and so I make a note of something like this and if I am trading a match involving her I will be looking to lay her if the opportunity presents itself. There are hundreds of similar scenarios involving other players if you look for them!
Look At The Previous Week’s Tournaments
You should consider what has been happening in the tournaments that took place the week before the one you are looking at. Main reason being is that player who went far in a tournament the week before might well be feeling fatigue which will affect them in this tournament, especially if the journey is a long one. For example, if a player has had to play in a final of the previous tournament then that was 5 matches within 7 days and if they are back in action in a new tournament on the following Tuesday then they could run out of steam in the early rounds. These players are great to look out for since they can often take an early lead in a match before losing it. This creates great low-lay opportunities when you fancy a player might be tired.
Ideally, if you are trading tennis regularly then you will be aware of this information anyway but if not then it is easy to use Google and find out.
Pick One Tournament And STICK To It
Sometimes there are 2-3 tournaments all taking place simultaneously through the week across both the men’s and women’s sections. A novice trader will probably flick around until he finds a match he likes the look of but this is a bit of a mistake. You should pick one tournament and stick to it for the whole week. This way you are picking up lots of little nuggets of information that will help you as it progresses.
For example, in round 1 you might notice a player who wins the first set, has a wobble in the 2nd set but comes back firing in the 3rd set. Or you may notice a player start slow but get into their groove after a few games. Usually if a player does this in one match they will end up doing something similar in the next round and it is great to have the information available in your head to help you with the trade.
The only way you will be able to pick up this information is by sticking to the same tournament for that week so the players become more familiar. I would go as far as saying that you should only be trading tennis if you can commit to following a tournament for a week. I do not mean trading every match but trading every day is important.
Plan Your Days
The tour moves from country to country every week so you will need to adjust your days if you do wish to trade the majority of the tournament. When the tour is in Europe you can trade like a 9-5 day job if you live in Europe also but when the tournament moves to the USA or the far east you can find yourself trading late night or early morning.
The good news is that the main busy days are usually the Monday or Tuesday as these days have the most matches. As the week progresses there are less matches and the workload becomes easier.
Consider Player Profile
I really love trading the 500 tournaments or any tournaments that usually involve the big seeds that are not actual grand slams. This is mainly because the big seeds are definitely not as interested in winning these tournaments, yet the markets still rate them pretty highly. So players like Djokovic, Nadal and Murray will have starting prices sub 1.30 in these matches yet we all know they will not be playing anywhere near the point they would be if it was a grand slam. Strangely, I often notice these players will win the first set before eventually crumbling and getting knocked out which is even better as their price goes even lower to lay. So if you are trading a tournament, you should look to see if there are any players from the top 10 involved in it. The chances are these players are just there to fulfill contractual obligations and get game time and there can be some great opportunities I develop if you were to oppose them in-play.
You really should take a more organised approach to your tennis trading by planning how you will trade the tournament in advance of it beginning rather then just waking up and checking what is happening on the day. You will definitely see a big improvement in your trading this way.
If you would like to know some of the methods I use to trade tennis in-play then be sure to check out my course, Dynamic Tennis Trading which includes 5 strategies.
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