Football Trading Forums: The Harsh Reality Revealed

This article is written by Ian Taylor who is a full-time writer and hobbyist football trader. His views are his own.

Ah, football trading forums— we have all been there right?

The colosseum of debate where egos clash, stats fly, and everyone believes their strategy is the holy grail.

I have been in enough forums, Discord groups and Telegram chats related to football trading to last me a life time. These days I rarely venture into one unless I fancy torturing myself.

But let’s take a quick dive into how these titans of trading argue, because lurking on these forums is almost as entertaining as the football trading itself.

1. The xG Debate

Argument: “xG is the future of trading!” vs. “xG is useless!”

               •             Pro-xG Trader: Armed with charts, heatmaps, and the unwavering belief that expected goals predict everything from match outcomes to lottery numbers.

               •             Anti-xG Trader: “I don’t need numbers. I’ve got intuition, mate!” Often counters with, “Did xG predict Leicester winning the league? Thought not.” Or “xG said 3 goals, but there were only 2. See? Useless!”

               •             Result: A stalemate. Both parties leave smug, convinced they’ve won. This is a new one but seems to be the most popular these days.

2. “Lay the Draw is Dead!”

Argument: The perennial battle over whether Lay the Draw (LTD) is still profitable.

               •             Trader A: “LTD is dead. Everyone’s doing it, so there’s no value left!”

               •             Trader B: “You’re just doing it wrong. My cousin’s mate’s dog walker made £10k last month trading LTD.”

               •             Result: Trader A posts a screenshot of one losing trade as proof it doesn’t work. Trader B retaliates with a green screen. Chaos ensues.

3. The Staking Plan Showdown

Argument: “Martingale vs. Fixed Stakes vs. Fibonacci.”

               •             Martingale Guy: “Double your stake after every loss. It’s foolproof.”

               •             Fixed Stakes Purist: “Martingale is a one-way ticket to bankruptcy.”

               •             Fibonacci Enthusiast: “Both of you are wrong. Trading is basically math—ever heard of the golden ratio?”

               •             Result: The thread spirals into a tangent about how Martingale will take you to the poorhouse, that you should only ever do fixed stakes and that Warren Buffet probably uses Fibonacci to trade stocks.

4. “Your Strategy is Rubbish!”

Argument: A timeless classic: one trader shares a strategy, and the vultures descend.

               •             Original Poster (OP): “Here’s my unique take on a Correct Score Trading Strategy.”

               •             Forum Critic: “This is just a worse version of something I saw on YouTube. Do better.”

               •             Random Defender: “At least he’s sharing something, unlike you.”

               •             Result: OP deletes their post, but the forum critic stays to declare victory. Nobody gets anywhere or learns anything and this will probably happen again the next day with a new OP.

5. The “Gut vs. Data” Debate

Argument: “Go with your gut!” vs. “Trust the stats.”

               •             Gut Trader: “I’ve been watching football for 20 years. I don’t need spreadsheets to tell me Arsenal bottle it.”

               •             Data Trader: “Emotions are for fans, not traders. Here’s a 14GB Excel Sheet proving my point.”

               •             Result: Gut Trader wins the likes, but Data Trader feels intellectually superior. Nothing productive is achieved.

6. The Screenshot Flex War

Argument: Who has the most impressive trade screenshot?

               •             Trader 1: Posts a green screen with £15 profit. Caption: “Easy money.”

               •             Trader 2: “Why didn’t you stay in for the full 90? Could’ve made double.”

               •             Trader 3: “You’re all amateurs. Here’s my £500 win from last night.”

               •             Result: Everyone pretends they’re not impressed but secretly wonders how to replicate Trader 3’s success. And unless Trader 3 is willing to share how they did the trade then it is all pointless.

7. The Anti-Gambling Brigade

Argument: “Trading isn’t gambling!”

               •             Trader: “I’m a trader, not a gambler.”

               •             Critic: “You’re still taking risks for financial gain. Sounds like gambling to me.”

               •             Result: The critic gets banned, but not before Trader writes a 2,000-word essay explaining why they’re a serious investor.

8. The “If You’re Not Profitable, Quit” Guy

Argument: “If you’re not making money right away, this isn’t for you.”

               •             Aspiring Trader: “But I’m learning and improving!”

               •             Quit Guy: “Trading is too hard, you won’t be able to make it. Only like 1% become profitable. Give up!”

               •             Result: Aspiring Trader feels demoralized but secretly vows to succeed just to spite Quit Guy. Quit Guy never reveals that he is someone who has given up trading himself but for some odd reason still hangs around forums to bring other people down.

9. The Software Argument

Argument: “Software is the future of trading!”

               •             AI Advocate: “I use automated software for my football trading now. Welcome to the future.”

               •             AI Skeptic: “Software can’t predict football. It’s too random.”, “I used that software, only gave me 9/10 correct predictions, useless!”

               •             Result: Software Advocate sends a link to a paid tool they’re ‘not affiliated with,’ (although an affiliate link is often attached) sparking suspicion and a heated debate about shilling. Everyone loses sight of helping each other and chaos ensues.

10. The “Why Didn’t You Share It Earlier?” Brigade

Argument: “Great tip… AFTER the match is over.”

               •             Poster: “I laid the draw at halftime and banked £100.” *Shares Screenshot*

               •             Critic: “Nice call, but where was this tip before the game? Convenient.”, “What about your losing trades?”

               •             Result: Poster is discouraged and vows to keep all future trades to themselves, turning into a shadowy forum lurker.

Conclusion:

As you might already know, football trading forums are a battlefield of egos, spreadsheets, and well-timed snark. Whether you’re there to learn, debate, or just lurk, one thing’s for sure: no argument is ever truly resolved, but they’re always entertaining.

You just have to accept that you probably won’t learn anything of use from these forums and your time spent on them will be incredibly unproductive. Especially if you engage in the actual conversations!

Pro tip: Bring popcorn (and maybe a nice cold beer).