Nadal In HUGE Wimbledon Gubbing

Whilst many people were watching the football last night, I had one of my eyes on events at Wimbledon as Nadal took on Rosol and one of the biggest shocks in recent Wimbledon history developed.

With Nadal starting the match priced @ 1.02 you would be forgiven for thinking it was a foregone conclusion. I know I did and I did not bother watching the first set.

However, this is where things like Twitter come in handy.

I noticed a tweet from another tennis trader who mentioned Nadal playing badly in the first set. So I had a look and saw Nadal had just won the first set after a tie break which finished 11-9. When you see such a scoreline in a tie break you can be sure that it was a tight one!

At this point his price was back to 1.02 and this is where the big opportunities in tennis trading can normally crop up. Rosol had just matched Nadal in a very tight first set yet Nadal was still supposedly a 98% certainty to win the match? Even a monkey could have worked out that 1.02 was too low in this situation and was much more likely to trade higher during the remainder of the match.

Remember, in tennis trading we are not laying Nadal at this point hoping Rosol takes the match. You are just looking for Rosol to trouble him enough so that his price rises and you can gain a fair amount of ticks. For a risk of just 2 ticks you have a serious amount to gain. If Rosol tested Nadal in the first set then its likely he will test him again in the second set.

Rosol duly won the next two sets and Nadal traded up to 1.50 going into the 3rd set.

When Nadal won the 4th set to level things at 2-2 he went back to trading @ 1.18 to go on and win the match.  At this moment, the momentum was with Nadal however then a break in-play arrived as the roof was put on the court so they could carry on late into the night.

This made me tweet…

  Going into the final set as a trader you have to ask yourself, will this price go higher or lower?

Considering Nadal had lost his serve various times and had lost two sets by this point it is a pretty safe “gamble” to suggest that the 1.18 would end up trading higher at some point during the 3rd set with a potential of 12 games left to play.

The rest is history, as they say and I sat there stunned as Rosol pulled it off. I was expecting the pressure to get the better of him but his serving was incredible and Nadal was well beaten in the end. My only regret was that I greened up too early (in hindsight) as I was anticipating the Nadal machine clicking into gear but it just never happened.

To put this shock into context…..

This is the first time Nadal had played in Wimbledon and not made the final since 2005 and he was beaten by a player not even ranked in the top 100. In football terms it is the equivalent of Spain being knocked out of the World Cup by Luxembourg!

The 1.01 Nadal backers must be fuming right now but you should not be too surprised, it was only in May when the 1.01 backers were gubbed to the tune of over £1 million when backing Nadal.

Last night was not so bad with only £197k turned over @ 1.01, although over £5million was turned over at prices from 1.05 and lower. Oh dear…


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  1. “The Horror! The Horror!”. 😉

  2. As usual, great article…keep up with good work! 😉

  3. so, am new to the trading game but as the roof closed, i placed £15 on Rosol to be outright winner at 480.
    now its at 50ish, i’m trying to work out how to lock in a gain. Any tips?
    What a game!!

    1. Sports Trading Life says:

      If my calculations are correct you should now lay Rosol @ 50 with £144 and this will give you an all green book of £129.

      1. Many thanks, I’ll have a go and keep you posted.
        Much appreciated.

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