Spain progressed to the final of Euro 2012 needing penalties to qualify over Portugal.
Just as in the England-Italy penalty shoot out, the team missing the first penalty went on to win the shoot out. I do not have much experience with trading penalty shoot outs but I have now seen more then enough to suggest that laying the team that goes “ahead” after just the first kick is a good value move. With potentially 4 more kicks left to miss there is a strong chance that the side that falls behind can get back into it since it does only take one miss from the opposite team to make it all square once again.
I put “ahead” in quote marks since Portugal technically never even went ahead in the shoot out although the markets reacted as if they did…
Spain started the shoot out priced @ 1.80. After Alonso missed for Spain, Spain could be backed as high as 2.66 to qualify and this was before Portugal had even taken their first kick!
We all know what happened next as Portugal missed their first penalty and then the shoot out too. You can get a good idea of how the markets reacted from the charts below.
Spain are now in the final and as much as they play “good” football, it is not very exciting to watch for a neutral. I am dreading the prospect of Italy playing them in the final on Sunday and I might struggle to stay awake during the potential 120 minutes they will probably play out. Here is hoping Germany make it through so we can get the final we all want (Unless you are Italian of course!)
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