999-1 X Factor Winner On The Cards?

The producers of The X Factor have been pulling out all the stops to halt the ratings slump and bringing back Amelia Lilly into the competition could well make someone’s christmas.

If you have been following the show or the X Factor Winner market then you will know that Amelia Lilly was eliminated in the first round of live shows after being installed as an early market favourite to win the whole thing!

With, seemingly, no possibly chance to win the competition she then traded as high as 1000 on Betfair for £86 before being put back in the competition on Saturday night and is now the favourite to win the show at 4!

If you had a cheeky tenner on her when her odds hit 1000 you could now be sitting on about  £9,960 worth of green screen on her. Not a bad trade at all!

But then again, who would really have bet money on someone who has been eliminated from the competition?

Well, not for the first time, there has been suspicious betting activity on the X Factor market as people who know more then they should clearly cant help themselves.

I made this post about a month ago after Amelia was eliminated. You can read it again if you like but something I said of note was…

Strangely the markets on Betfair still rate Amelia Lilly as being 100 to win even though she has apparently been eliminated. Either they know something we don’t or someone still can’t believe she has exited so quickly!

I thought it was odd that she didnt trade at 1000 immediately after being eliminated as happens with most other acts. Since you have been eliminated, then you cant win and people on Betfair try and “buy money” by offering lays of 1000 in case someone makes a mistake or has to green up their screen. It actually took a couple of weeks for her to finally hit the 1000 mark which is definitely strange.

It makes you wonder if ITV had been planning to bring her back in all along? I am saying nothing more as I dont want a libel case on my hands but the market behaviour indicates that something isnt quite right with this whole episode. News reports over the weekend suggesting that it was announced that Amelia was rejoining the competition a whole HOUR before phone votes closed dont help things either.

It could just be nothing, since The Risk who were one time favourites to win the show also are still trading around the 250 mark despite their shock elimination after all. Either way, there is some strange goings on with that show and its not quite the low risk money maker it used to be. You just dont know what the producers are going to try next!

There used to be a time when it was pretty safe to trade the X Factor but its fair to say those days are looking bleak now!