Euro 2012: Stick With Ze Trends!

I know that plenty of people were surprised at Italy beating Germany the way they did however I wasn’t. When you do your research into these matches and you look at trends the way we do then there is not much that can happen that can truly surprise. Sport can throw up its shocks but no one should really have been shocked at Italy beating Germany.

The main trend going into this match was that Germany had never beaten Italy in a competitive tournament match. The players might change down the years but the psychological barriers don’t (as we have seen with England). These statistics will have to end one day and one day Germany will beat Italy in a tournament however until that day comes you will never find me putting money on them to do so. I have a big rule when it comes to sports betting “Never back something to happen that has never happened before“.

Like most, I initially fancied Germany to win this match. I saw Germany @ 1.95 to beat Italy but then after doing the research and considering the poor record that they have against the Azzuri I did not want to touch it with a bargepole. The markets were suggesting that Germany were odds on favourites to do something they have never done and suggesting they would do it 55% of the time too. Not for me!

Also, if you have been watching the tournament so far you would have surely noticed how suspect the Germany defence has looked. This is a defence that has looked vulnerable in every match so far, conceding 4 goals in 4 matches. Having conceded 2 goals to Greece of all teams was surely enough of a clue that the Germans would be susceptible to conceding against Italy also. If I am going to back a team to win a match I need to be reasonably confident that they can keep a clean sheet and there was nothing indicating that the Germans could shut Italy out as was proven correct.

In the end I had no interest in the match and enjoyed it for the spectacle it was but the end result did not surprise me although Italy were far more impressive then I initially expected them to be. If you want to hear about something that really was shocking last night then read this.

As we head into the final on Sunday, Spain are 1.60 and Italy are 2.66 to take the crown. I did tweet and suggest we could be in for the most boring final of all time with these two teams but from another, more positive, point of view it could actually be quite fascinating at the same time. Off the top of my head I feel Italy have a much better chance of winning this then the markets are suggesting but I will have to do some research to back this up before getting involved.

Roll on Sunday!