No matter how many different ways I try to write it, nothing can describe the drama that unfolded on the final day of the Premier League season yesterday. Plenty of people suggested there might be one or two twists left and there certainly was.
With Man City priced @ 1.15 to win the match and also win the title it was probably no surprise when they took the lead in the 39th minute. It was much more of a surprise when QPR managed to turn around the match after half time to make it 1-2 to the visitors. They were matched @ 100 during the half time break but by the 66th minute they were as low as 3 for the win.
At this point I think many people watching could actually believe what was unfolding before them. I knew I couldn’t and I was a little bit like a rabbit caught in headlights as the in-play markets were carnage. Needless to say, the Match Odds and Correct Score markets didnt believe QPR would hang on to the victory since with about 10 minutes left the score of 1-2 was still trading @ 2.50. In a “normal” match it would be about 1.70 at that time!
The real drama happened in the Premier League Winners market with Man City’s price to win the league slowly drifting with every passing minute and Man United slowly steaming in from a high of 8.6 at kick off.
Once the match at Sunderland ended, City were still trailing 1-2 to QPR and the markets had United as 1.20 favourites for the title . It probably went lower but as you can imagine the drama was keeping me busy.
When Dzeko pulled one back I “knew” City would get the other goal they needed but the ending was pretty remarkable. If someone wrote this script as a movie it would have probably been thrown out on being too unrealistic. A sensational end to a sensational season.
The screen shots below do not even begin to tell the full story. Looking at the Man Utd chart it looks like they might have even gone as low as 1.05 before Aguero scored with the final kick of the season.
I am not sure of the starting price of a 3-2 Man City win but I expect it would have been pretty high. A 3-2 Score line for Man City against QPR should not have been that much of a surprise since that was the precise same score they won the reverse fixture by in November.
On the same note we should also have not been surprised by the scoreline of 1-0 to Man Utd against Sunderland. That was also the precise same score from the reverse fixture in November.
One other thing that was confirmed during all this was that Man Utd have now become the shortest price to be beaten for the Premier League after trading as low as 1.03 for the title on April 8th.
A month is a long time in football it seems and it was exactly a month ago when Betfred paid out early on a united win which is rumoured to have cost the bookmaker over a half a million. A silly move it seems but Betfred has done the same before. He paid out early on a Man United title win in 1998 also. Ironically, United never won the league that season either. Oh dear…
Anyway, We will be back tomorrow and we will look back on the Premier League season and the long term markets in a bit more detail!
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You really have to see it to believe it!