If you read this blog regularly, or any other blog worth reading, then I am sure you will see the word “Value” mentioned many times. The main point being that if you arent taking good value prices then you simply wont win in the long run. Something, that out “The Mug” experiment seems to be proving as the season goes on.
The basic premise of “Taking Value” is that you are taking odds which represent a greater chance of the event happening then the implied chance that the odds are giving. This can happen at any odds range from 1.01 all the way up to 1000.
However, The main problem with betting on value is that…
Yes, I said it.
Taking value isnt the most thrilling way to punt and hence why the average punter doesnt want to take it.
If we take last nights football for example. It was indicated that Under 2.5 Goals in the Spurs-Wigan match was a good value bet @ 2.60 based on recent stats. However, the match ended 3-1 and obviously the bet didnt win. Then considering there was 4 goals in total you would probably feel a bit silly having bet there was only going to be 2 goals or less. However, when you are only taking value you have to develop a thick skin to this type of thing. Every man and his dog was going after Over 2.5 goals in this match which really killed the value and so the sensible move was to go with the Unders line.
Betting on a match to finish Under 2.5 goals is actually pretty boring, especially if you are watching it. Who would want to watch a football match and cheer for neither team to score?
However, the fact is that there is much more likely to be value in Under 2.5 goals then in Over 2.5 goals as every casual punter loves to bet on there being goals as opposed to there not being goals.
Another problem with only betting value is that you run the risk of …
This is mainly reserved for when you are socialising with others and there is a sports event happening. Most people I know, know what I do and so when I am out and a sports event is on they might ask me for a tip. Since I am more inclined to look for value I often find that the answer I give them isnt the answer they want to hear as I am normally “tipping” the underdog due to their good value price. If you remember this post from last summer then this was a good time I tipped the underdog and it turned out to be terrific value and I looked like a genius but it doesnt always work out like that and when going for underdogs it rarely ever will.
I remember back at the 2006 Word Cup Final when I watched France V Italy with a few people. Everyone in the world was going for Italy in this match and I actually agreed. However, the price on France was too good to miss that day. I told everyone my money was on France for it even though I expected Italy to win which no one seemed to understand and to make things worse, Italy did win (on penalties) which then meant I had to endure hearing “I told you” for the rest of the evening and my explanations of taking a “good value bet” seemed to fall on deaf ears.
The average person just doesn’t realise that gambling isn’t just about being right but its about being right at the RIGHT price.
If you can overcome the fear of looking stupid and also the fact that Value betting isn’t as exciting as “favourite punting” then you should be in a good situation to start profiting from gambling. I know because I have seen it for myself and I only wish someone had told me many years back!
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You really have to see it to believe it!