Is The Value With Liverpool?

The demise of Manchester United has resulted in what could end up being the tightest finish to a Premier League season ever. I guess the 2012 season and the Aguero moment might be hard to top but at the moment we are facing the possibility that as many as 4 teams could enter the final day with a chance of winning the title.

Premier League Winners Market

750x100011In the history of Betfair I have never seen such an open Premier League winners market with 4 different teams having been the favourite at some point. The first favourite was Manchester United when the market first opened at the end of the previous season. Interestingly, once David Moyes was installed as manager the price drifted and by the start of the season it was Manchester City who were favourites. I guess the markets knew what was coming. For the record, Man Utd are out of it and priced @ 1000 but they have had plenty of money matched on them as low as 2.54 and actually touched the price of 2 but I think someone made a mistake there.

As we head into the final straight, we have Man City @ 2.50, Chelsea @ 3.30, Liverpool @ 4.2 and Arsenal @ 15.5.

It is currently in the hands of Manchester City as they have games in hand but the way this season has gone you have to feel there are more twists to come. The price on Liverpool looks to be the one to have value right now and you have to feel the markets are underestimating them slightly.

 They still have to play Man City and Chelsea but these matches are both at home. The fact that they will probably be favourites to win both those matches makes you wonder why they are currently 3rd favourites. Especially since a Liverpool win over Chelsea and winning their game in hand will see them go above Chelsea.

 I thought it must be due to tricky away matches for Liverpool but these do not look that tricky either. They go to Cardiff, West Ham, Norwich and Crystal Palace which should be all be perfectly winable matches for Brendan Rodgers men.

 The only real problem is the fact that this Liverpool team has not been involved in a title race before and experience might end up counting for a lot. All season they have been playing with no pressure and no distractions which has inevitably contributed to the success but now that players like Steven Gerrard have come out and said “we are going for it” then you might see the outlook change slightly.

 So much so, that Liverpool’s away trip to Cardiff this weekend now looks extra huge. This is the perfect “banana skin” for a team like Liverpool to slip up on after winning so well at Old Trafford last week. If Liverpool get a result at Cardiff on the weekend then I will firmly become a believer and we could see the most remarkable title winning effort in the history of the Premier League.

 The price on Arsenal @ 15.5 is also quite generous considering that they have the same points as Liverpool. However, away trips to Chelsea and Everton could prove to be their undoing. Then again, if Arsenal get a result at Chelsea this weekend then that will really cause a huge ripple in this market.

 If you ask me who I think will win it in May, I will stick with Manchester City but this is proving harder and harder to call as the weeks go by. But if I was forced to put money on it then the prices on Liverpool and Arsenal look hard to resist.

 Strap yourselves in, this could be a spectacular end to the season!


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