/ / / Pre Match Football Trading Example: The Paper Chaser

Pre Match Football Trading Example: The Paper Chaser

Here is an example case study of a day of PRE-MATCH FOOTBALL TRADING.

This is done by myself trading the prices during the day and hopefully this example will show how simple it can actually be. My view being that newbies often over complicate pre-match trading and also panic too quickly. I also want to show that the main principles of the Paper Chaser method from TFT still work just as good as they always have been.

This was recorded in August and it is a Champions League day and there are 6 matches this evening in the play offs. I have spotted 4 potential opportunities to get involved with. This is the method I am using on this and so I can not totally disclose everything that I am doing for obvious reasons.

Below are the 4 matches I am going to get involved in. For the simplicity of the case study, I will be using a £1000 stake on all these matches. On a normal day I may vary my stake depending on how confident I feel about certain trades and also the odds range but it is best to keep it simple for now.

For more info on how to spot these opportunities then you will have to consult the paper chaser method within Total Football Trading.

Matchday Morning

I open these trades on the morning of the match.

Arsenal BACK

The indicators suggest that Arsenal are going to steam today. So I back them @ 2.62 with £1000.

Basel BACK

The indicators suggest that FC Basel will STEAM today. So I back them @ 2.34 with £1000. Getting involved in prices above 2.20 can be a little bit dangerous and I definitely would not advise a beginner to do so.

Steaue LAY

The indicators suggest that Steaua Bucharest will DRIFT today. So I lay them @ 1.69 with £1000.

Schalke BACK

The indicators suggest that Schalke will STEAM today. I back them @ 1.44 with £1000.

Now I will return to these markets in the afternoon and check on my position. I know some like to check every hour but I am comfortable with every 2 hours as I know the moves against me are never going to be huge ones in the pre-match markets. I might also be more liable to panic if I spot a bad move against me when looking every hour and in some cases, “ignorance is bliss”.

Afternoon

Arsenal BACK 2

A very solid move in the Arsenal match and thankfully I was on the right side of it. Arsenal have moved in from 2.62 to 2.42. Newbie traders may get excited at this and take the available profit but this is not the way to do it. There are still many hours to go till kick off and if Arsenal have moved this much already then it is unlikely they will move the other way now. I remain in this trade now comfortably knowing it is not likely I am losing money here and there could be more ticks available. Remember, if Arsenal now do reverse in price then I can still get out for pretty much zero loss.

Basel BACK 2

However, just as things can go in my favour they can also quickly go against my favour. The Basel price moved unexpectedly against me from 2.34 out to 2.42. I make the decision to close this trade at this point as I feel I have got the wrong direction on this trade. This is quite close to my stop loss and there is no point waiting for it to hit my stop loss and lose even more. I take a -£41.33 loss on this match and this trade is over by the afternoon.

Schalke BACK 2

The Schalke trade is going to plan as they have steamed in 2 ticks from 1.44 into 1.42. I will leave this trade open as it is moving in the right direction and there could be more ticks to gain in this match.

Steaue LAY 2

The Steaua Bucharest trade has not moved anywhere as yet but there is still time. I often notice newbie traders give up on trades if they do not move anywhere but prices can move at anytime leading up to kick off.

Going forwards, I now have 3 trades open with the Arsenal one going very well. From here, I keep an eye on the prices once every hour to ensure nothing crazy happens.

Evening

Steaue LAY 3

In the early part of the evening I notice we finally have a move in the Steaua match and thankfully it is in my favour and quite a sharp one. I assume some team news must be breaking early somewhere. Anyway, this trade is now going well also and I will return an hour before kick off to finalise my positions and ensure team news does not swing the trades against me. Once again, I do not see the need to green up at this point as there is still plenty of time for the price to keep moving in my favour and for my profits to increase.

Close To Kick Off

Arsenal BACK 3

This shows why it was worth remaining in the Arsenal trade as they did steam further and I completed the Arsenal trade with a move from 2.62 down to 2.34. This produced a profit of £110.17 which eclipses the earlier losing trade in the Basel match, an 11% return on my stake.

Schalke BACK 3 CLOSED

Despite the Schalke trade looking good earlier on the trade moved against me closer to the kick off. This could have been due to unfavourable team news but this is not worth dwelling on. I closed the trade as quickly as possible when I saw the price move against me as you have to cut the losers as short as possible. If you are not in a position of profit an hour before kick off then you probably never will be! This trade is £27.03 loss.

Steaue LAY 4

The Steaua Bucharest trade goes very well and I close it 20 minutes before kick off as the price seems to stall. In the end this was a drift from 1.69 to 1.85 which is a very nice trade and £86.48 profit is produced.

Summary

Overall, there were 4 trades entered on this day with 2 winners and 2 losers.  The overall profit from these 4 trades was +£128.29.

The main thing I hope people learn from this is that you can clearly see that if you cut the losing trades short when they go against you and let the winning trades run out for as long as possible then it is not hard to profit even with a 50% strike rate like that. As you saw the profits from the winning trades were more then double the losses and if you keep this consistent then you do not need a high strike rate to profit long term.

If you keep an eye on the prices and get out of the trades when they begin going against you are going in the right direction. However, you also need to let winning trades run when they are going in the right direction. I think many newbies go wrong simply by taking profit too soon. This is all down to mindset and this will also be covered on the blog very soon.

Anyway, I hope you enjoyed this and I will hope to do another one very soon.

For more info on how to spot these opportunities then you will have to consult the paper chaser method within Total Football Trading.

 

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18 Comments

  1. Hi mate,

    good and easy to read and follow. Looks promising for the future when my bankroll is that big 😉
    But thanks to you this will help.

    Now the hard part is to find the right games 🙂
    Keep up the good work.

    sl alex

    1. Sports Trading Life says:

      Thanks for the comment Alex.

  2. Hi Ben

    Many Thanks for putting these trades up. Very interesting as I have not as yet traded football.

    Do you have any similar examples of pre-race trading on horse racing?

    Regards

    andyor

    1. Sports Trading Life says:

      Hi Andyor,

      pre-race trading on horses is out of my own personal comfort zone and I have never been able to master it. I am hoping to get some guests who can offer some tips and advice in future though.

  3. cayenne turbo says:

    Great article again lads.I actually went through the manual again last night and I cant recommend TFT enough.I’ve learned so much from it and the Paper Chaser method is one of my core strategies now.Keep up the great work guys.
    Gerry

    1. Sports Trading Life says:

      Thanks Cayenne. It does surprise me how many give up so quickly with the paper chaser but I guess it does require patience.

  4. Good read, nice idea with the time lapse images.

  5. Hi Ben

    Thanks for getting back to me about pre-race trading on horses.

    Looking forward to any of your guests providing advice/examples.

    Regards

    Andy

  6. And what happens if the things go opposite of what “the indicators” say? Which indicators do you use? Thank you!

    1. Sports Trading Life says:

      Hi,

      Well you can see in the examples what happens if it goes opposite of the indicators, the Basel trade and the Schalke trades both went the wrong way. You just have to cut out of the trade once you see it going the opposite way.

      1. So, which indicators do you use?

        1. …to predict where the odds will go..

  7. Hi Ben,
    Interesting,but do you need a very large bank to make it worth while,I wonder how many can afford £1000 for the back bets,lays of course smaller outlay.

    What would you say is the smallest bank required to start,to win more than a few pennies I mean.

    I do have the Total Football Trading,but have always thought this one was out of my reach,money wise.

    Regards,

    Mike.

    1. Sports Trading Life says:

      Hi Mike,

      I guess it depends on how much money you generally want to make from football trading. Some can only have a small bank of a few hundred pounds but if your bank is this size then your profits will also be quite small too.

      If you used a £1000 bank and then committed £250 to each trade then this profit will have been £32, get a similar profit 5 times a week on average and that is an extra £160 per week and your bank could be up to £1641 by the end of the month and you can grow your bank from there. It is obviously easier said then done but if anyone wants to take football trading seriously in order to generate a second income I would say a £1k bank is the minimum required.

  8. Are your ‘indicators’ taken from the market movements, or things such as form/team news etc?

    1. Sports Trading Life says:

      I explained I used the Paper Chaser strategy to indicate which way the prices will go. This is based on market movements.

      1. I am following your blog for no long time, where can I read more about this strategy?

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