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Champions League – To Qualify?

As we head into the Champions League Quarter Final stage I will once again be keeping a close eye on the “To Qualify” markets.

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The markets have already clearly defined their favourites with most being quite overwhelming:

Real Madrid @ 1.05

Chelsea @ 1.60

Barcelona @ 1.20

Bayern Munich @ 1.20

As the regular readers know, I love to take on the favourites and with 180 minutes of action ahead of us you simply have to expect some of these prices will trade higher at some point. The big question is by how much?

The interesting point to note is that all these sides play their first leg away from home. It wouldn’t be that much of a surprise if any of these sides drew or maybe even lost the first leg. Chelsea, in particular, face a very tough away match and I am sure they will be happy to take a draw back to the Bridge.

Another thing worth pointing out for those who like a punt. If you were to lay every favourite in the “to qualify” market then you only need one to fail to qualify to make a profit. If you get two or more then you really have hit the jackpot. So if you fancy a shock in this round then this could be a good angle to take. At this same stage last season 2 of the 4 favourites failed in Chelsea and Inter Milan, so who knows?

I think all these sides are ripe for taking on in the first leg and I will be experimenting with small stakes and aiming for each sides odds to double. For example, lay Barcelona @ 1.20 and aiming for 1.40 in-play.

I am pretty sure an opportunity or two will crop up over the next few evenings!

 

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5 Comments

  1. Hello there I read these quite a lot and
    Do find aspects of value in what you say but you never produce screenshots or staking plans apart from your small experiments so I wondered if you could in future

    Cheers

    1. Sports Trading Life says:

      Hi Higgle,

      Thanks for dropping by.

      What did you want to see screenshots of?

      1. Your all green screens and little things like that pal

        Cheers

        1. Europa League to qualify. Id say atletico madrid and valencia look great lays considering their current issues.

          At. Bilbao – 1.8

          At. Madrid – 1.39

          Valencia – 1.43

          S.Lisbon 1.94

          1. Sports Trading Life says:

            I think you could be right Ross. The Europa league is much more unpredictable then the champions league so we could see some swings.

            As we have seen this week the champions league is a bit more predictable with most ties being over before the 2nd leg!

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