This is a guest post from Steven Hall. Steve is a full time football trader and also the brains behind Dynamic Football Trading which is one of the best courses on in-play football trading that have been released to date.
We have spoken before about “how to predict a draw in a football match” and today I am going to divulge a few strategies you can use when you feel a draw, or a close match, is quite likely to happen.
These are “mini-strategies” and the exact entry and exit points are, obviously, something you can adjust to suit your own trading but the principles behind all of them are pretty much the same.
1 – Back At The Start, To Lay
Your first option is to back the draw from the start with a view to laying it at some point in the match. For example, we have found what we expect to be a tight match that we feel could easily be a draw quite late on in the match. If you were to back the draw @ 3.50 with a £100 and then lay the draw @ 2.50 with £100 then you will have a £100 green outcome sitting on the draw result. This would effectively be a free bet from that point on if the match does end in a draw. No further risk.
Obviously if a goal goes in you will have to make a decision about whether to stay in or to get out. You could easily get out for a loss or you could be aggressive and combine this strategy with strategy 3.
2 – Back At The Start, To Trade
This strategy is the same as the above but your aim would be to reach a certain point in the match and cash out for a guaranteed profit across all out comes. If you were to do the same trade as above but by backing @ 3.50 and then cashing out if the price hits 2.50 then you will be looking at a guaranteed profit of £38. If a goal does go in before the price hits where you want it then you could get out for a loss but you are still alive in the trade since an equaliser will get you back on track. The decision is yours of course!
3 – Back After A Goal
Probably my favourite strategy since the value potential is so high. If you have slated a match down as having strong potential for being a draw then waiting until a goal is scored and for the draw odds to rise before backing the draw is a great way to get further value out of the market. The idea here would be to back the draw at higher odds and then to lay or cash out if/when the equaliser comes.
For example, if a goal goes in and the draw odds hit 5. I then back the draw @ 5 with £100 and observe how the match develops. If the equaliser does not arrive till late in the match then I can easily be laying the draw at odds below 1.50 and potentially cashing out for profits of around £200+.
It is quite risky since the leading team could easily double the lead and run away with the match but the reward is often worth the risk in my view if you have profiled the match correctly.
4 – Back At Certain Time
There will be times when I am watching a match I have profiled as being likely to be cagey but then it has started in quite an open fashion. However, usually at some point in the match it will become apparent that both managers are setting for the draw and you can tell this by the body language from the benches, the types of substitutions they make and the urgency of both teams to get men forward. In these cases there can be some great opportunities to back the draw and let it run down to a certain price and lay or cash out.
One of my favourites is to back the draw around 2.20 and then lay at around 1.60 as the odds can move very fast around this time if the pace of the match is slow. This is a pretty risky strategy as a goal can really leave you in trouble but, as said, if you profiling matches correctly and reading them properly then you will not get caught out very often.
5 – Scalp The Draw
An alternative to the above strategy is to scalp the draw by backing and then laying every few ticks, being sure to get out at any corners, free kicks or other dangerous situations. I have experimented with this in the past but found it frustrating and something I would prefer to leave to those who scalp regularly. Main reason it is trickier these days is the fact that TV pictures are so far behind the real action and Betfair often have 8+ second bet delays which means you are not immune to being caught out by a goal. As said, if I am reading a match properly I am hardly ever caught out by a goal when using the above strategy so I prefer to stay in and leave it.
There are as many ways to back the draw as there are to skin a cat as they say. Above are some of the most common approaches and as laying the draw goes more and more out of fashion you might find that backing the draw is what brings you the profits in the future 😉
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