So I just wanted to knock this together so people get a full understanding of what the Power Sheets CAN do for you and also what they CAN’T do so people don’t misunderstand things or have unrealistic expectations.
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I remember when I first sat down to play around with it back in September I wasn’t quite sure of the best way to use it but with a few months experience I am in a much better position to make some suggestions and let you know what has worked and what hasn’t.
(If you have NO idea what the Power Sheet is then check out the latest Youtube video to see it in action)
The main point to keep in mind is that this is a TOOL.
It is not a crystal ball or the Grays Sports Almanac (not yet!).
Therefore, it should be used alongside all your other regular analysis but some would argue that PRICE analysis should be your first port of call and is probably the MOST important factor to look at before anything else.
I am sure you agree with that!
So, just to get to the bottom of all this, Power Sheets is a tool that will help you too:
1 – Get involved When Prices Are In Your Favour
The main purpose of this tool is to show us opportunities where the prices are in our favour either historically or based on the “future” power model pricing.
I know some are sceptical about how good the pricing model can be and even if that is the case then you can ignore the model and just looking at the historical ROI% of some bets should be enough to take note of.
Any historical ROI% below 4% ROI indicates an efficient pricing market but anything above 4% indicates an inefficiency in the market and we can get involved knowing that this is an inefficiency that can work in our favour (if it indicates profits of course!).
There is a good reason why the bookmakers will never show you which bets have historically been profitable or not when betting on sports, but they will be happy to show you that on a roulette table 😉
For example, this Bundesliga match between Union Berlin and Dortmund is a match where I was thinking to lay or oppose Dortmund since I knew they had been in bad form and lost their previous match 5-1.
However, there is no point me laying Dortmund if the prices are not in my favour.
Therefore I need to know.
Well lets put the match and the price into the tool to see what is suggested.
And you can see the tool suggests the prices are definitely in our favour to be backing Union Berlin.
Or laying Dortmund.
Actually, it is a hugely profitable move historically to back the home team in this situation in the Bundesliga overall.
I can then confidently get involved in this match laying Dortmund or backing Union Berlin depending on what I am comfortable with.
And now you can see why this is information worth knowing, if the prices suggested that laying Dortmund would historically lose money then I might want to think twice right?
Following from that I can also see that backing Over 1.5 Goals and Over 2.5 Goals is a bet with a positive expectation and Over 2.5 Goals is well above the 4% ROI margin of error which suggests a market inefficiency and the VALUE we are seeking.
Immediately from that I know I will be approaching this match opposing Dortmund in some way and I could also get involved backing the Over goal markets since these prices are in my favour.
So this is the best way to approach it.
One of my concerns is that people will get this tool and start backing the “value” blindly.
Definitely do not see this as a “tipping service” and follow the value bets blindly.
Remember, sometimes it might throw up value for good reason but other times there might be external reasons that are having an effect on the price and you still need to do that final mile to nail down what are actually good opportunities and what are “red herrings”.
Generally, when you see the “THREE GREENS” light up this represents a pretty good opportunity but all the tool can do is present you with data, it is down to you in how you interpret the data and use it.
(NOTE: We have just completed a good study showing what profits you could make if backing ALL of the “value” prices blindly. Not that you should be following anything blindly but there were some interesting results and I will put this out tomorrow!)
2 – Point You In The Right Direction
If you are someone who sometimes looks at a market and is unsure where to start then this is the perfect tool since it will point you in the direction of what you should be looking for when having a bet or trading in-play and it can virtually build your trading plan for you.
Should we backing or laying the home team? Laying the draw? Should we be going for goals?
Let the tool tell you!
I have found the Power Sheets tool particularly useful for pointing me in the right direction of good trades usually in leagues where I don’t know the teams that well.
For example, this recent match between Lille and PSG was an interesting one as whilst many of us know PSG fairly well I doubt anyone can name much of the Lille team.
Anyway, running this match through the sheet quickly indicated that the angle to look for was to Lay the Home Team (Lille) with both Power Model value but also the historical profitability in our favour.
Therefore, I can enter this match knowing that I am looking for in-play indications to lay Lille and if PSG look like the better team early on I can lay Lille knowing that this is a trade with a positive long term expectation.
There is, of course, no guarantee that the trade will win but knowing that the prices were in my favour when I got involved is great for confidence and can stop a lot of that pesky second guessing that might occur.
No more kicking yourself and wondering if you made the right decision or not!
In the same match I can also see that the historically profitable move in a match such as this is to Back Under 1.5 Goals or Back Under 2.5 Goals.
Knowing this information does not mean I have to also back those outcomes but it can save me from backing the Over 1.5 or Over 2.5 outcomes in this match when historically this is a trade that loses money.
Think about it, bookmakers are happy to actually provide us with historical stats, in play stats and even live pictures as they are confident we won’t gain an edge on them using that.
But there is a reason you couldn’t find out information like this from the bookies.
And so this is information I think I would want to know. Then if I decided to go against it and lost money I would only have myself to blame.
By the way, if you are interested in getting this piece of kit for yourself to play around with then it will be available for a limited time only from December 24-26.
Get on the invite list below to receive the link to buy it when available. There will be a PRO-RATA discount available for it too!
(NOTE: You must have Microsoft Excel for this to work!)
Anyway, the above leads me on to the next point
3 – Helps With Discipline
If you are someone who has issues with discipline, constantly getting involved in matches randomly without some sort of plan and thus losing money then I firmly believe that using a tool like this can help.
Using this tool regularly should mean you will be much less inclined to get involved in matches on a “whim” and we all know that never ends well for anyone.
For me, since I got this tool I ALWAYS run any match through them to get a little bit of an idea of which prices might be in my favour before I get involved in it.
There are some matches which are inconclusive and so I just skip them totally and already I have probably saved potential losses by avoiding matches I would probably have no long term edge in.
Then there are matches which show angles that have clear long term positive expectations and I can narrow those down and just stick to those. For every 10 you look at, probably 3-4 will show strong angles.
On a busy Saturday it really helps narrow things down especially.
And at the same time, your trading plan is already made for you.
If the tool indicates that you should be backing the home team then you can look to input your strategies around that knowing the prices are in your favour to do that.
If the tool indicates good historical profits in the goal markets then you can look to get involved in that and so on.
Which leads me on to this…
4 – Powerful Alongside Match Reading
I have tended to let the Power Sheets suggest the angles to me and create my trading plan for me rather than looking for the angles first and then running a comparison.
Let me explain a bit more…
So if it is indicated that backing the home team is value and/or is historically profitable I will follow/watch the match and see if the in-play action also indicates I should back that home team.
Sometimes just watching the match will give you the best indication of whether there really is value to be had or if the markets are calling it correctly on this instance.
This is useful not just in finding winners but also avoiding DUDS!
A quick example is the Spurs-Leicester match which indicated value on Spurs and a positive expectation backing them at home. (Not the strongest example but it is a recent one that came to mind).
So I watched the early stages and then saw Leicester be the better team (in my view) and since the angle was in disagreement with what I was actually seeing it was an easy decision not to get involved in backing Spurs.
And I wasn’t going to back Leicester since this was not indicated to have a long term positive expectation and, more importantly, it did not fit the plan.
I was willing to wait till the second half to back Spurs if they brightened up but then Leicester got the penalty on the stroke of half time and that was that.
Therefore, it was just a matter of moving on to find an opportunity where both the prices and the in-play action were in my favour.
Remember, there are hundreds of football matches every week to trade. You should already know to never force a trade but seeing the data presented how it is definitely helps with being disciplined and moving on! (yes even for me!)
5 – A Time Saver!
If you are someone who is looking to save time with planning out your bets or trades then this is a surprising benefit of this tool also.
At first when loading up the sheets it might seem a little cumbersome and time consuming but I eventually realised it was saving me time.
Once I know what I am looking for it is just a matter of typing the matches into the sheet along with the prices, looking for those “2 or 3 greens” and if I don’t see them I quickly move on.
Only once I find what I am looking for on the sheet do I then look deeper into that match and so I haven’t wasted time looking at a bunch of matches which eventually had no angle for me.
6 – [BONUS MENTION] Great For Lay The Draw!
It is early days but I am finding this tool great for picking out our old friend Lay The Draw trades.
Quite a lot of matches throw up good historical profits from laying the draw and so I am primarily looking for value on the “favourite” and if there is value on the favourite it usually means the draw price is too short which is probably the angle (or trading plan) to tackle in-play.
And with so many away teams winning at the moment the lay the draw is a great option since I should get a good chance to get out with a profit at some point in the match but I can also be confident that laying the draw till the final whistle is a profitable move since I can actually SEE that it is!
Another key thing to keep in mind is that with the way the markets work, if the value is present at SP then it is also value during the match (if the score is still 0-0) and so even waiting till half time to lay the draw can be a good angle and lowers the risk-reward ratio a bit.
So for those planning on using the sheets then maybe looking at revisiting lay the draw could be a good beginners strategy to work with ?
Anyway, as mentioned if you want to treat yourself this Christmas and get this piece of kit to play with yourself then get on the invite list below.
Included in the sign up will be:
Power Sheets ELITE Sheet Access Till June 2021
?Power Model Pricing Tool
?Elite Sheet – Historical Profits Tool
Elite Sheets – Historical Odds Database
10 Leagues (Inc Premier League, La Liga & Bundesliga)
Power Sheets Playbook PDF
Power Sheets HD Training Video Course
(NOTE: You must have Microsoft Excel for this to work!)
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