How Efficient Are The Betfair Markets?

It is generally accepted that the football markets are VERY efficient and hard to beat if we are talking about betting at the starting price (in play is a whole different ball game).

And if you were to try something like backing EVERY home team or backing EVERY Over 2.5 Goals etc then you would end up at break even.

The markets are pretty efficient when it comes to that.

However, if you are reading this article you are probably smart enough to know that you can’t beat the markets with such a basic approach.

Therefore, we need to find the inefficient prices and bet on those.

And the place to find them is by breaking down the prices into odds ranges.

Since the markets are pretty good at getting it right overall, this does not mean that there are not some match-ups and price ranges that the markets have trouble getting correct.

For example, (and this is just an example)

Back EVERY home team in the Premier League will make you break even.

But backing EVERY home team priced between 2.20 and 3.20 might be a profitable angle.

And if it isn’t perhaps matches involving home teams in this price range might create value elsewhere.

With so many variables flying around it is impossible for the markets to be fully efficient 100% of the time.

There are lots of little edges to be had but you have to look a bit deeper.

Anyway, the below video should explain more.

I show you just how efficient the markets are BUT with a few tweaks we can find some inefficiencies and this is how you start to BEAT the markets.

You might be surprised at how inefficient the markets actually are at some points!

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One Comment

  1. mark jackson says:

    Yes Value is hard to find especially if you dont have a long term strategy, just by going off what you think the price should be doesnt always indicate value, however if you have followed a certain stratgey lets says both teams to score which is usually around 2.0 or so, you use certain criteria which you have researched, your success rate is 15 wins for that last twenty games then yes at even money using your system you certainly do have great value.

    I do this with horse racing lays , I note down any horse which runs at the back, has a low high pace figure and a low class pace figure, of course there are only a few selections everyday, you cant do this on everyrace, my records or strike shows I lose one in thirty races, so using my criteria anything under 30/1 offers value, ah you may say youre just laying 15/1 s or high priced horses, no , there is a mixture from anything 3/1 upwards, I lay to a set liabilty , this is crucial in keeping order in your value betting , in a nutshell you need to find a strategy which out performs the odds.

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