The “Next President” market on Betfair is always a big one and the 2020 edition could easily be one of the biggest ever markets seen on the Betfair Exchange.
This will be a rolling “diary” post with all the latest updates on how the market is shaping up all the way through to November 3 2020 when we will discover who will be the next president of the United States.
Be sure to bookmark or subscribe to email updates to get the latest updates on this market as anything significant happens.
LAST UPDATED: JULY 6 2020
July 6 2020
At first glance the odds have not shifted much on Joe Biden compared to our last update on June 22.
However much has been happening behind the scenes and Kanye West announcing he is running for president has also had an impact on the market which is why we are now showing the Top 5 runners.
Since the last update Joe Biden touched as low as 1.66 in the markets, and Trump drifted as high as 3.15.
Now, Biden is out to 1.77 and Trump is coming back in at 2.72.
The markets didn’t seem to like Joe Biden’s announcement that he would not hold a campaign rally during the Coronavirus pandemic. Since the pandemic is not showing any signs of going away by November this means he is effectively not going to hold a rally at all. Since that announcement his price has been drifting, and it has been a 10 tick move so far (and counting)!
Kanye West announced his run for president and he has been as high as 1000-1. He is now priced at 130 but could be good laying material if you have the bank for it since many will suggest he has “zero chance”.
Either way, with how the market is shaping up there is a possibility that this doesn’t end up being the two horse race we all expect.
Who will win? Trump or Biden? Or somebody else? Leave a comment below!
June 22, 2020
With almost £39 million matched, Joe Biden is currently the favourite at 1.75.
This is only a recent development with Trump being the market favourite up until the unrest that spread across America after the death of George Floyd.
Around this time it was a closer market with Joe Biden @ 1.90 and Donald Trump @ 2.20
However, after Trump held a campaign event on Saturday June 20 which had a lower attendance than expected the price on Biden shortened further and above you can see how the market currently looks today.
Below you can see where the market has previously been up until this point.
Joe Biden has been as long as a 1% probability and matched as high as 100-1 in this race. Now he is getting close to being a 60% probability and priced at 1.75 in the Betfair odds.
Donald Trump has been as low as 1.64 and a 60% probability to win. Currently he is now a 2.66 shot and closer to being a 35% probability.
Trump will tell you he has been a bigger underdog before and still won, so there is still a long way to go in this market.
Who will win? Trump or Biden? Leave a comment below!
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