The “Next President” market on Betfair is always a big one and the 2020 edition could easily be one of the biggest ever markets seen on the Betfair Exchange.
This will be a rolling “diary” post with all the latest updates on how the market is shaping up all the way through to November 3 2020 when we will discover who will be the next president of the United States.
Be sure to bookmark or subscribe to email updates to get the latest updates on this market as anything significant happens.
FINAL UPDATE: DECEMBER 14 2020
DECEMBER 14 2020
Well it is FINALLY over and it was the BIGGEST Betfair Exchange market of all time and one that will take some beating.
£1,698,347,459 matched and almost a TWO BILLION DOLLAR market.
In this case, just the billion will do.
Funny fact, Joe Biden never once hit 1.01!
NOVEMBER 11 2020
We have been waiting for this market to settle to do the final update of this but it has become apparent this might not happen for some time so here we are.
And we are 4 days on from Joe Biden being announced as President Elect and his price has still not hit 1.01.
It has actually DRIFTED since the announcement which is quite remarkable.
At the time of writing, Biden has been matched as low as 1.03 for £783,698 but currently is priced at 1.10 by the markets and even went as high as 1.14 on Monday night.
This has left many scratching their heads.
Could this be “free money” available?
One theory floating around is that many who backed Biden with 6 or 7 figure stakes are now laying their positions off to free up funds which is causing the price to float up whilst this is happening.
If this is true, then yes this is free money.
However, others are suggesting the markets are spooked by Trump’s expected litigation against the result and considering the markets are still giving Trump a 10% chance of winning an election that seems to be over suggests there could be ‘something’ in that and maybe he does have something up his sleeve.
Remember, this is not a small market on a Romanian second division football match that is easily manipulated. There has been almost 100 million turned over since the media projection and you would think the hedge funds and smart money would be mopping up the 1.10 available and pushing it down to 1.01 if it really were over.
I am not suggesting this means Trump will turn it around since it is still a 10-1 shot but there might be enough ‘evidence’ floating around to see Biden’s price rise higher still before the market is settled.
So there is a 10% chance of more drama to come in this market and could we possibly hit the 756 million mark?
That would put it close to being a Billion Dollar market! CRAZY!
NOVEMBER 7 2020
Most of us (including Donald Trump) thought this was going to be decided on election night but really this was only the start of the drama.
We went into election night with the prices pretty much as they had been since the October 23 update (Biden 1.50/Trump 3).
But once the votes started coming in around 7PM EST (Midnight in the UK) things started to shift DRAMATICALLY.
By around 1am, the markets had FLIPPED.
As Trump took an early lead in many states the money poured in for him and eventually he went as low as 1.24 by around 10PM EST (3am UK time).
Many of us thought it was over at this point. I mistakenly assumed these elections would be decided on the night and thought it was doubtful there would be another swing in the prices.
I cashed out of my own trades with Trump around 1.33 and went to sleep.
However, upon waking up in the morning it soon became apparent that the markets had HUGELY overreacted.
It became clear that the postal ballots were still to be counted and they would heavily favour Joe Biden.
The markets then swung BACK towards Joe Biden.
By 7AM EST, Joe Biden was into 1.35 and it was a slow steam downwards into 1.10 after that where it hung around for a few days.
By 12pm EST on November 7, Joe Biden was projected by CNN to be the next president of the US.
Just as the market crossed the 500 million mark!
OCTOBER 23 2020
60 million quid turned over since the last update as we get closer to election day and early voting has begun in the US.
The odds don’t seem like they have moved much from the last update but there has been a fair bit of up and down movement on Biden.
Biden has been as low as 1.41 and then as high as 1.60 but last night’s debate seemed favourable for Joe Biden and the markets have settled at 1.50 and 3 for Trump.
Unless something crazy happens these will probably be the prices we have heading into the election night. If memory serves me correct, Hilary Clinton was around 1.40 with Trump in the 4s range heading into the 2016 election night. So not as much as an underdog as he was back then as it stands!
OCTOBER 6 2020
Well that escalated quickly.
The first debates seemed to favour Biden rather than Trump and Biden shortened to around 1.60 by the next day.
Then the real drama began as President Trump tested positive for COVID-19 and the markets had to be suspended due to the doubt about his health.
I am not sure why this needed to happen since “death” of any of the candidates is covered in the terms and conditions and is something many are factoring in for this market.
It is 2020 after all and it is better to expect the unexpected.
Anyway, Trump has since been discharged from hospital and seems well so the markets have opened back up.
Since then Biden has shortened a bit more and has hit his lowest price yet at 1.51 and currently is priced at 1.56.
The Trump price chart is the better one to view to get an idea of recent movement and you can see it here.
This has been an incredibly dramatic market. It has already topped the 100 million mark and we are not even in the real business end yet.
Not much to see as the election date creeps closer but the market move on Trump came to a halt and he has been on the drift ever since.
News of Trump’s failure to pay taxes broke over the weekend and contributed to a further 10 tick drift which cements Biden as the market favourite ahead of the debates.
After the strong market moves in favour of Trump at the end of August many thought it would be Trump who would be the favourite heading into the debates but since then the markets have favoured Biden heavily.
The debates might cause these markets to be more volatile and maybe we will see Biden shorten considerably if he comes out well in the debates. That is what the markets seem to be preparing for at least.
We are in the business end now and things are about to get very interesting.
SEPTEMBER 2, 2020
A pretty big market move since the last update with the Biden drift continuing and Trump steaming in.
Trump and Biden were both close to the 2.0 mark last night but something had to give and Trump drifted out to 2.10 by the morning.
Is this as far as the Trump steam will go? 60 days to go till election night!
AUGUST 17 2020
Doesn’t seem like much has happened since the last update from looking at the screenshot but the past week has seen some good market support for Donald Trump.
Joe Biden has hit a low price of 1.61 and Trump breached the 3.0 price but ever since then it has been a steady drift on Biden and a steady steam on Trump.
Here you can see how the tables have began to turn in favour of Trump.
Who will be the favourite by November?
July 6 2020
At first glance the odds have not shifted much on Joe Biden compared to our last update on June 22.
However much has been happening behind the scenes and Kanye West announcing he is running for president has also had an impact on the market which is why we are now showing the Top 5 runners.
Since the last update Joe Biden touched as low as 1.66 in the markets, and Trump drifted as high as 3.15.
Now, Biden is out to 1.77 and Trump is coming back in at 2.72.
The markets didn’t seem to like Joe Biden’s announcement that he would not hold a campaign rally during the Coronavirus pandemic. Since the pandemic is not showing any signs of going away by November this means he is effectively not going to hold a rally at all. Since that announcement his price has been drifting, and it has been a 10 tick move so far (and counting)!
Kanye West announced his run for president and he has been as high as 1000-1. He is now priced at 130 but could be good laying material if you have the bank for it since many will suggest he has “zero chance”.
Either way, with how the market is shaping up there is a possibility that this doesn’t end up being the two horse race we all expect.
Who will win? Trump or Biden? Or somebody else? Leave a comment below!
June 22, 2020
With almost £39 million matched, Joe Biden is currently the favourite at 1.75.
This is only a recent development with Trump being the market favourite up until the unrest that spread across America after the death of George Floyd.
Around this time it was a closer market with Joe Biden @ 1.90 and Donald Trump @ 2.20
However, after Trump held a campaign event on Saturday June 20 which had a lower attendance than expected the price on Biden shortened further and above you can see how the market currently looks today.
Below you can see where the market has previously been up until this point.
Joe Biden has been as long as a 1% probability and matched as high as 100-1 in this race. Now he is getting close to being a 60% probability and priced at 1.75 in the Betfair odds.
Donald Trump has been as low as 1.64 and a 60% probability to win. Currently he is now a 2.66 shot and closer to being a 35% probability.
Trump will tell you he has been a bigger underdog before and still won, so there is still a long way to go in this market.
Who will win? Trump or Biden? Leave a comment below!
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