A question I get emailed to me very often usually goes something like… “Chelsea are priced @ 1.25 at the moment for their home match against INSERT TEAM. Surely this price will shorten as all the mugs and casual punters will be backing that price, so it should be an easy trade right?”
It seems many novices to pre-match football trading are big believers that short prices will “always” shorten in price leading up to kick off since that team is so highly fancied.
My response to this is…. IF ONLY IT WERE THAT EASY!
There might have been a time when short priced favourites did always steam in before kick off but it seems that these days that is definitely a myth and not something you can rely upon.
The problem is…
It is fair to say that short priced favourites will probably steam in price more often then not however you should definitely not start backing them blindly in hope of this since the risk really does outweigh the reward.
If you get a big name team like Chelsea, Man Utd, Madrid, Barcelona playing then you will find that the price steam, if it does come, is usually only a minimal amount of ticks. The potential movement against you is a big one and it can happen if there is a shock omission from the starting line up. Think how many times you will see a big team play a weakened side against “weaker” opposition and the prices can often drift accordingly.
My advice would be to expect a price steam on the short priced favourites when it seems that literally all the conditions are in their favour. For example, they are in good form, they have no injuries and their opponents are in bad form and you can be sure that the big name favourite wants and needs to win this match. Most importantly, you need to expect they will play a full strength line up!
In those situations you will see the prices come in further.