It has been quite an amazing Premier League season and a real treat for the football traders who thrive on excitement as that is what causes the big market swings. Those who have been trading the Premier League winners market have been in their element this season with 5 different teams all being favourites at some point since it was first opened.
So now we are into the final straight and the markets currently have Man City @ 1.85, Liverpool @ 2.40 and Chelsea @ 20. This title race is pretty much guaranteed to go to the final day now but you do feel this weekend will be particularly decisive.
I have looked at the final fixtures and, without much thought, very quickly decided how they will turn out in order to give me an idea of how this will all end and what I predicted is below.
Vs Everton – Draw
Vs Aston Villa – Win
Vs West Ham – Win
Final Total: 84 points
Vs Crystal Palace – Win
Vs Newcastle – Win
Final Total: 86 points
Vs Norwich – Win
Vs Cardiff – Win
Final Total: 84 points
This would mean the final table will have:
1st Liverpool – 86 Points
2nd Man City – 84 Points
3rd Chelsea 84 Points
This surprised me as when looking at the markets you can see Man City are the current odds-on favourites. Looking at what I picked I have all 3 of them down to win every match remaining apart from Man City’s trip to Everton this Saturday so this was obviously the mitigating factor in all this.
I looked further into why I did not feel confident initially about a City victory there.
I discovered it was pretty much down to the poor record that Man City have at Everton in recent seasons and most notably since the takeover in 2008.
Their last victory at Goodison was in April 2009 with Robinho scoring that day in what was a dead rubber fixture anyway. Since then, they have lost 4 in a row at Goodison which is every season since. This is not going to be an easy game for City by any stretch of the imagination and they will have to reverse a pretty significant trend.
One thing that should be in Manchester City’s favour for this clash is the fact that they know what they have to do and a win for them would pretty much seal the title with 2 relatively easy home matches left after that. Much also depends on Everton’s motivation to beat City and virtually hand their rivals Liverpool a long awaited title.
So, strangely enough, I think the markets have it a little bit wrong here and I still think Liverpool should be the favourites and I will be laying City ahead of their clash against Everton in the winners market.
By the way, follow this advice only at your peril. This season has definitely been one that has made many a professional punter look a bit silly. One thing is for sure, there will be more huge TWISTS before the final ball is kicked on May 11th and I can not wait to see how it all ends.
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