Betfair Tennis Trading Legend Matt “Puntdotcom” was at it again, scoring a huge win by doing what many a tennis trader dares never to do…laying Serena Williams.
By now you should be fully aware that the strong odds-on favourite was eliminated from the tournament in just the 3rd round which was a huge upset. She was a 1.70 favourite to win the tournament before it even started so this was quite a shock. Going into the match there were reports that Williams was struggling with a back problem but she was still an overwhelming favourite according to the markets and to oppose her often causes a huge dilemma as, in most cases, even a half fit Serena Williams can still win a match easily.
I do not expect Matt to fully explain the trade but just looking from his Twitter feed it is quite easy to reverse-engineer these trades and it looks to me like a pretty simple one. If you are aware of the “stubborn dog” trade this looks pretty close to that sort of strategy, i.e lay an under performing favourite and trade back to relieve liability as price increases. A pretty standard trade within tennis trading and one that can yield huge rewards for small outlay.
In this case, this trader clearly felt that Serena Williams was not performing as well her current price was expecting and so he did a Lay on her and traded back as the price began to increase.
Here it looks like Matt took the decision to Lay Serena Williams probably due to her not quite playing as good as she usually does during the first set. The initial risk here was £2211.62
It looks here like after Williams won the first set, Matt still did not believe that her price was right. He clearly felt there was more value in laying her again whereas many newbie tennis traders probably would have given up at this point. Matts comment at this point on Twitter was “If at first you don’t succeed, lay more.”.
Here it looks like the tide is finally turning in favour of the trade. With Ivanovic back in the match and probably winning the 2nd set you can see that Serena has drifted out to about 1.32. The beauty of tennis trading is the fact that no matter what happens now, this trader is going to make some money on this trade. He has at least £7.5k sitting on Serena Williams but a potential of a much bigger win on Ivanovic if the underdog does complete the come back.
Here both players are close to the evens mark and Matt decides this is a good time to green up. His tweet at the time saying “Squared up, market in sceptical mode. Time to get back on perhaps..“. This would suggest that Matt felt that maybe the markets were no longer offering good enough value on the Williams lay and he had raced it as far as he could. In hindsight, he should have obviously stayed in for a bigger win but I can not imagine this trader will be feeling too down about a £29k profit. I am sure this trader must love trading Serena Williams matches, his previous biggest win was £37k on a Williams match as mentioned here
Not bad for a nights work! 😉
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