When you are trading tennis on Betfair one of the key skills to hone is spotting when the momentum in a match might change. Usually in a tennis match you will get one player dominating for a period however they very rarely dominate the whole match all the way through. When a player dominates a certain part of the match this can drive their odds much lower then they really should be and this can actually be a good time to lay that player as once the momentum shifts to the other side you can catch huge swings.
Being able to anticipate when a match might turn is something that will help you make great profits when tennis trading. Here are a seven ways that you can anticipate a change in momentum before it happens.
The Sit Down Break
A scenario I see happen often in a Tennis match is that Player A will come out firing and score an early break. It seems like Player B is not at the races and the markets will over react and figure that Player A is going to romp home to the first set. However, then they get a sit down break in between games and this is usually a good chance for the losing player to get themselves together and change the game plan for the next game. The coaches will usually get a message to the players at this point which can be the advice the player needs to change things. When you are trading a tennis match you will see when the players sit down in between games and this can be a good time to begin favouring the player who was previously taking a battering.
End Of The Set
In a 3-set match, the end of the first set is similar to half time in a football match. A player could have just lost the previous set 6-0 but it is still only one set and the trailing player will usually radically change their game plan at this point as they realise that they have to go for it or they will be out. I have lost count of the amount of times, especially in WTA, where a player wins the first set really easily but then the 2nd set feels like a totally different game as the underdog stages a comeback. I have even seen women’s matches go 6-0 and then 0-6. So you should anticipate that the momentum can easily shift to the underdog once the first set is over.
Early Double Break
Once a player scores a double break then the markets usually consider that the current set is over and that player will go on and win it. The interesting psychology with this is that the leading player might also begin to think this too. They might “mentally” believe they have now won the first set and this can lead to them being sloppy in the final stages of that set. The trailing player now has zero pressure on them and can really go for it to try and get back in the match. You should especially watch out for situations where a player goes ahead with a double break but then the underdog pulls a break point back. This can signify a big shift in momentum as the leading player will doubt themselves and the underdog will be inspired.
Medical Time Out
Sometimes the trainer will come on for a player who has seemingly picked up a knock and needs treatment. Unsurprisingly, this is sometimes used to slow down the other players momentum since you do not often see the player in the ascendency needing a medical time out unless they really are genuinely hurt.
When there is a medical time out you often see the markets over react and favour the “fit” player even more however you should pay close attention to the actual situation at hand. Sometimes, the “injured” player will come back fighting harder then ever after a medical time out so watch out for that!
This is similar to the medical time out as it can give the trailing player a chance to regroup mentally and a chance to adjust the game plan. If it is a long rain break you can be sure they will be watching replays of the match so far in order to see what can be done differently.
In an interview with a professional Tennis Trader on this website last summer an example of this was summed up perfectly.
I believe Serena went a set down and possibly a break down, she had been suffering with cramp, and there was some confusion on the seriousness of it. It was clear to me that really she was ready to boss the match if she was half fit. The odds were short on Hantuchova, being well ahead in the score. When the first drop of rain hit my window (I live a couple of miles from Wimbledon) I layed and continued laying when the first drop hit the court. They went off, she had a massage, ate some crisps (probably), came out and won the match.
Crucial Points Missed
There can be times when the momentum shifts in a tennis match once a player is “mentally gone”. Watch out for players that are young and inexperienced who have the chance to win the set or even win the match but blow it. Once this happens they might be mentally gone and this is a great chance for the other player to gain the momentum. If an inexperienced player blows crucial points they have usually blown their big chance and the more experienced player will usually close it out from that point.
It can even happen to the best of them as we saw last summer when Serena Williams was eliminated from the French Open after trading down to 1.01 and being just two points from winning the match. She ended up blowing the set and even began crying before blowing the whole match against little known Razzano.
The Red Mist
It goes without saying that once a player gets angry he or she is not going to be playing their “A-Game”. I have seen plenty of matches where a player might be leading but then if something goes against them they lose it mentally and start getting angry. Watch out for an argument with the Umpire as you will usually see a dip in that players performance in the points that precede that incident. A player like Serena Williams has been golden for this in recent years. In 2011, she had a complete melt down in the US Open Final after rowing with the Umpire. She lost the match 6-2,6-3 despite starting as 1.25 favourite.
That just about sums it up for momentum changers in Tennis Trading. Remember, if you want learn 8 strategies for Tennis Trading then check out TotalTennisTrading.com