With the group stages now finished we now have our final 8 teams and if you have a position on the winners market (or are thinking of opening one) then you can now plot the route to the final and work out where the prices will go from here.
The main point of note is that we now have new favourites to win the trophy in Germany @ 3.25. They started the tournament @ 4.2 and actually touched as high as 5 in-play when they were struggling to break down Portugal in their opening match.
Everyone is now assuming Germany will get past Greece in their Quarter final and they are priced @ 1.15 to do so which makes them a 85% certainty to get through. It might seem like an easy trade to back Germany now with a view to laying them after they get through however these market prices are currently assuming Germany will get through and you wont see them trade much lower then the current 3.25 UNLESS Spain get knocked out by France.
It is actually all pretty well set up for the Germany-Spain final and if both teams get through to the final I expect the markets will have them both priced around the 2 mark going into the final since it is very hard to choose between these teams.
Another team that might not move so much in price if they qualify is Portugal. They are currently priced @ 8.6 and if they get past the Czech Republic are expected to play Spain and the markets will obviously favour Spain massively in that. If you are thinking about backing Portugal right now then only do so if you think they will beat Spain in the Semi-finals since they could stick around the 8 mark even with qualification in the bag.
Even if Spain get knocked out by France then you have to expect that the markets will then see France as favourites to qualify over Portugal since they did just beat Spain after all!
England are beginning to gather a bit of momentum in the betting markets and are now priced @ 9.4 to go on and win it having started the tournament @ 15. Their opponents in the Quarter Final match will be Italy who are also priced @ 10. With the winner of this match expected to play Germany in the Semi-final then you cant really see the 10 trading much lower then 7 or 8 going into that match. If you were thinking about backing either England or Italy at this point then the most you can probably hope for is a 2 point price move in the markets which means your money is better off going on either team in the “To Qualify” market.
The biggest market movers have been Greece who started the tournament @ 110, touched as high as 500 in-play and are now priced @ 65 going into their match against Germany. I am pretty sure this will be the end of their tournament run now however I remember saying the same when they had to play France in the Quarter finals back in 2004…..
It does seem that if we are going to get a big market move at this point of the competition then we need one of the “Big Two” to be eliminated in order to put the cat amongst the pigeons.
Something you could possibly do is back either England or Italy ahead of the Germany match V Greece and hope for a shock. If it comes then the price on both sides will crash before the match is played since the markets will assume the winner of that match is going to get to the final. If it doesn’t happen you could trade out for a tiny loss ahead of the clash if you didn’t want to risk it going in-play.
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