Euro 2012: The Spain Croatia Draw Conspiracy

There has been quite a lot of talk about the match between Spain and Croatia ending in a 2-2 draw since that is the result that will send both teams through for sure.

The conspiracy theorists are in their element with this one and the 2-2 draw has traded as low as 5 on Betfair. To put this into perspective the “normal” price on 2-2 in a match like this would be around the 22 mark.

The Draw itself has already been matched @ 2.60 but is now drifting slightly as the public realise that there might not be such a conspiracy after all.

If you are thinking about backing 2-2 in this match then you will be doing so at a very poor price. It is currently available @ 10-1. I am not saying the match wont end 2-2 but to suggest these teams have settled or “fixed” a 2-2 draw already is nonsense and when backing such a score at such a poor price you deserve to lose your money.

Both these teams will kick off and try to win the match in the early stages. It might not be high tempo but neither side will “settle” for a draw until after 70 minutes at least. If the score just happens to be 2-2 in the late stages then you can bet your life that neither side will be going far over the half way line.

Much of this probably depends on what happens in the Italy-Ireland match. Italy ideally need to win by 2 goals or more and if they do go 2 goals up then Croatia will have to go for it to stay in the competition and then Spain could be in danger if Croatia manage to take the lead. Therefore, you have to expect Spain will want to go out and get the job done early on to avoid the hairy moments late on.

This is all pretty confusing and I will just sit back and see how it plays out. For what its worth I actually thought this match would end up in a draw before I realised the scenario.

Perhaps laying 2-2 at such odds is a value lay but at those odds, I will give it a miss myself!

Notably, the last time we were in a situation where both teams needed a 2-2 draw to qualify was when Denmark played Sweden in Euro 2004. This was to ensure Italy never qualified which is remarkably similar to the current scenario too.

Oh yeah, that match finished 2-2 also. Will history repeat itself?