As I look ahead to this weekends fixtures it seems that the time might be right to take on Man City in the Premier League Winners Market.
If Man City are ever going to have a wobble along the way to the title then they are certainly overdue and their up coming fixture list will certainly prove to be a much tougher test then the first quarter of the season has proved.Well, at least I hope it will anyway!
Currently Man City are priced @ 1.77 to go on and win the Premier League this season. They might well go on and win it too but as traders we have to ask ourselves, Will Man City trade higher then 1.77 between now and May? Its hard for any team to sustain the type of form that Man City have shown so far this season and you have to expect they will wobble at some point.
Manchester City have a few potentially testing matches coming up in their next 4. Liverpool (A), Chelsea (A) and Arsenal (H) along with a 3 point banker at home to Norwich city sandwiched in there too. I say these matches are “potentially” testing because with the talent at Mancini’s disposal they could still easily win them all. Even if they did, I don’t think Man City can really steam lower then 1.40 for the title before Christmas so its quite easy to measure your potential risk with this trade. Also, remember this market adjusts on a match by match basis, so you have a lot of time to think over your position and trade out if needed.
Manchester United are probably the only other team that can potentially win the title this season. Their next four matches are Newcastle (H), Villa (A), Wolves (H), QPR (A) which looks quite a bit easier on paper then Man City’s next four fixtures. All those games are easily winable for Man Utd and it would probably only need Man City to draw two of those for the market to over react wildly.
You should also have a think about how a potential Champions League exit might affect team morale. Confidence is quite a fragile thing and the City team might have been mentally affected by the way events developed in Naples during the week. As highlighted in this post during the week, it might only take ONE bad result to make a team go into a bit of a blip. Just think about how well Chelsea were doing this season till they lost that match at QPR?
I admit I am probably writing this more out of hope then expectation as there have been times when Man City have looked invincible this season. However, the opportunity to take them on @ 1.77 is looking quite tempting when you see their up and coming fixtures. You could set a stop loss of 1.50 and risk only 27 ticks but potentially win more then 50 ticks if City wobble over the next few fixtures.
Then again, wouldn’t it just be typical football if Man City dropped points at Liverpool but Man Utd @ 1.40 failed to get the win against Newcastle at Old Trafford?
One thing is for sure, there will be plenty of twists to come and that 1.77 WILL trade higher at some point! 😉
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