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Biggest Mismatch Ever?

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Tahiti-spain tipsWe have seen plenty of matches over the years with football teams that start very low and every now and then we get a team starting @ 1.01.

However, the Spain match Vs Tahiti could possibly be the biggest market mismatch ever with Spain already starting @ 1.00 and available to lay @ 1.02.

The Match Odds market is not that surprising since it is hard to imagine Tahiti getting anything from Spain but the goals markets were particularly interesting.

I certainly can not ever recall seeing Over 1.5 Goals starting @ 1.00 and Over 2.5 Goals starting @ 1.01!

The other insane prices available are:

Over 3.5 Goals @ 1.03

Over 4.5 Goals @ 1.06

Over 5.5 Goals @ 1.14

Over 6.5 Goals @ 1.30

Over 7.5 Goals @ 1.45

Over 8.5 Goals @ 1.95

This effectively means the market is forecasting 8-9 goals in this fixture and judging by the match odds market these will all be to Spain. So they are effectively predicting a 8-0 or 9-0 win for Spain.

These prices are interesting and I am wondering if any of these will be worth laying from the start in order to gain some ticks if Spain do not score right away. It can all depend on how quickly the markets will drift, I would not be surprised if these prices remained static for the first 10 minutes and only began drifting after that if it was still 0-0. You have to feel that Tahiti will set up to defend and may be able to keep Spain at bay for a while but who knows!

Over 6.5 and 7.5 goals could be worth a straight lay at those prices. I expect if/when Spain go 5 goals ahead they may begin substituting players and taking it easy rather then trying to chase a cricket score. The only worry is that even the players on the bench are a different class and probably hungry for goals also.

One market I may look at will be the First Goal Odds market. It looks like the price for a goal in the first 0-10 minutes is going to be around 1.66 which could be a decent lay since Spain may start slowly and Tahiti will, surely, put men behind the ball from the start. Spain know they have this match won so scoring early might not be something they will go hell for leather for, however seeing how Tahiti defended against Nigeria this is a lay I will have to give some serious thought! 😉

It will definitely be interesting to see just how hungry for goals Spain end up being. The markets could have it wrong and they may not chase more goals after getting a 3-4 goal lead or, on the other hand, if Spain really wanted… this could be double figures!

 

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2 Comments

  1. I got on early and backed ‘any unquoted’ on betfair at 1.5, effectively predicting Spain will score 4 or more. Checked back the next day and someone had matched me. Only for £20 but still potentially the easiest tenner I’ll ever make. It’s now 1.03…

    1. Sports Trading Life says:

      Blimey, now that is value Steve!

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