The age old technical analysis vs. fundamental analysis debate amongst traders rumbles on. This is a debate which splits Forex traders all amongst the world but it’s quite a new one to sports trading.
I took a few positions on Friday after some fundamental analysis and it was very profitable indeed. I got two right and two wrong. The ones that were wrong were only small losses but the ones that were right were big ones. Full details here if you missed it.
Sitilaz left a good comment on Friday regarding the debate,
“If we are talking about fundamental analysis and pre-match trading, then the main points I guess is to understand which team punters will like in some particular game. However it’s not always that easy… there are two parts in this betting industry – a) ”average joe” who put some 50 quid on some TV game b) and ”smart money” or what we can call highrollers who put significant amount of money what make those odds to drift/steam. Sometimes ”average joe” and ”highrollers” think the same (perfect case for pre-match trading) but sometimes those opinions are different.”
Even though a lot of my pre-match trading is based on a technical observation, I have no doubt that it is fundamental factors (team news etc) that really make those markets move and if you are first to that news then you can make a good profit. This does include news of high rollers piling into a certain team which can also cause the markets to move too. The good thing about Sports Trading is that it isn’t hard to get first to news compared to if you were trading the financial markets.
For example, Rooney being out of the man utd team on Saturday contributed at least an extra 10 ticks to their drift and also saw the under 2.5 goals market drop by 16 ticks in the hour before kick off. The drift continued even when the team was announced so you could have picked up some low risk profits since its obvious the Manchester United price will only be going one way if their star player isn’t starting.
My in-play trades went ok this weekend although I took a hit on some championship matches. I am actually not sure how I managed to turn a profit for the weekend but the last minute Klose goal for Lazio certainly helped!
I have been enjoying getting involved in Serie A recently as the markets normally expect low scoring affairs and recent weeks have been full of goals. So this ends up creating so low risk and high reward opportunities if you catch the right matches. However, this weekend saw a return to form for Serie A as they had FIVE 0-0 draws in one day on Sunday. I managed to dodgy a bullet there as I only got involved with the evening kick offs that were live on ESPN.
The Mug also had a decent weekend and is now in profit for the season, so maybe he was right after all? Only time will tell and you can see how he got on here… The plan was to see if we could have a good laying service (for free!) however it’s worth holding back and seeing his P&L after 100 bets before drawing any conclusions. It will be interesting to see if this weekend was a fluke or not!
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