A Life Saving Goal

A good night of Champions League action was capped off by a life saving goal by Sergio Aguero for Man City against Villareal.

 Not for the first time this season, Man City were making a mockery of their low pre-match price in the Champions League. They started @ 1.38 last night but in my view Villareal were unlucky to not nick the win themselves. With Man City heading for a 1-1 draw you could also envisage that they were heading out of the Champions League as they would have probably needed 3 wins from their final 3 and one of those includes playing Bayern Munich again. So, it is pretty fair to say that the goal from Aguero was a life saving goal!

So Aguero’s last gasp goal should have really lifted some pressure off the shoulders of Mancini and his team. It really was last gasp as the 1-1 Correct Score traded as low as 1.05 before it was beaten with virtually the last kick of the game.

I love it when that happens!

Pre-match Movement

I had a decent day with the pre-match trades yesterday too.

The main steamers yesterday were Bayern Munich 2.12 > 1.85 and Lille 2.24>1.95. I wasn’t surprised about the move for Bayern as they seem to be a team that everyone loves to back at the moment. It is always worth looking out for teams that are in favour with the punters as they will normally steam in on every match they play.

When a team is in form then people will just back them and back them and the opposite will happen when teams are off-form too. Remember, how Man United were backed as low as 1.34 to beat Arsenal in August? Yeah they won 8-2 but their true price should have been 1.80 that day! A good example of what can happen when an in-form team is being backed in and an out of form team is having the hell layed out of them.

I was surprised at Lille’s move though. I expected that Inter would drift as they are a team which is definitely not in favour right now but I certainly didn’t expect Lille to hit odds on against Inter Milan and they did. They then went and lost 0-1 to Inter Milan so I really don’t know what the market was thinking with that one. I am a bit disappointed I didn’t appose Lille in-play somehow and I guess I missed a trick there.

Yesterdays trading was interesting as the prices seemed to take ages to move anywhere and it often is a question of holding your nerve when you don’t see any movement at first.

I documented the trades on the Total Football Trading Blog which is something worth bookmarking or adding to your Google reader. By the time you read this, today’s trades might be up to so I wish myself good luck with them!

Finally…

Have a look at the price on Barcelona today. 1.05 to beat Plzen!

I think that is the shortest starting price ever recorded for a Champions League match on Betfair. Pretty insane if you ask me!