Welcome to Football Trading – The Yoda Lessons!
This is part 2 of the 5 part blog series where I will be covering some of the BIGGEST lessons that newbies must learn from football trading if they want to succeed in the long term.
Each blog post will be released here daily until Friday so be sure to check back on the blog for the latest post!
A big newbie mistake I see is the emphasis on using pre-match research before they trade in-play.
We have gone from newbies not doing enough research to now doing TOO much research and also the WRONG research at the same time.
In fact, some are doing so much research they end up with “paralysis by analysis” and not doing anything at all.
Then, for many, the most frustrating thing is to do so much research, narrow down the perfect trade, only for that trade to lose but all the matches you skipped would have been winners.
I have been there myself with that in the early days and you begin to feel like the football world is conspiring against you personally!
Anyway, the big mistake that is happening here should have been obvious from the very first sentence of this article.
“pre-match research” before they trade a match in-play.”
Since you are trading in-play how can you base your decision on information that is now out of date?
This is like someone trading today’s Forex market solely based on what happened the day before.
Whilst this information is useful to an extent, it is NOT the research you should be paying the most attention to.
The best “research” of all is what is happening in the actual match itself.
I suggest weighting the importance like this…
20% Pre-Match Data
80% In-Play Data
The in-play “data” meaning the live pictures and live stats themselves. (If neither of these is available you should NOT be trading that match, simple as.)
And based on the in-play data you can let the trades come to you rather than seeking them out as it seems so many end up doing.
I see many planning their trades before kick off whereas you should have an “idea” of what you might do but nothing should be set in stone yet.
Here is an imaginary scenario…
Liverpool are at home to Man City.
Liverpool are priced at 2.38.
My pre-match data tells me Liverpool are in strong home form and also have a good recent H2H vs Man City.
As a football trader this is good to know and I would keep in mind that I would like to back Liverpool in-play.
But the MOST important data of all, comes from on the pitch and how they play when it kicks off.
If the match kicks off and Liverpool look slow with Man City looking more dominant, I can probably just skip the trade altogether and save the money. (Not something you can do if betting normally!)
But if they dominate the opening 10-20 minutes and Man City don’t look up to it then, like mentioned in lesson 1, I can back Liverpool expecting that in the short term their odds will drop if they score a goal.
(And you can see this via the live pictures or the live stats, both of which are very easy to get hold of. )
Maybe they get off to a slow start and only look good after 30 minutes or even 60 minutes?
Well as a football trader this is even better since the price on offer will probably be even higher by this point.
What if Man City nick an early goal and then Liverpool start to press for the equalizer?
Again even better, I can lay Man City at a lower price or back Liverpool at a really high price expecting that the odds will move in the direction that I want.
Here was a trade I did in Korea the other day. I noted pre-match that Anyang would be the likely winner but the in-play action wasn’t telling me to get involved.
But when the home team took the lead suddenly then Anyang came alive.
So I opened a lay on Bucheon.
Anyang equalised, and since they had momentum I used some of my profit to lay the draw.
In the end Bucheon scored and even though I expected Anyang to score it didn’t matter since the draw price rose and I could lock in the above profit.
If you think back to lesson #1 this is also a good example of how you can win football trades even when you call it wrong. I initially opened with a lay on Bucheon but they were the winning team!
Anyway, these are all examples of letting the trades come to you.
It is hard to plan for trades like this before the match.
Many newbies will look at that data then get into the market at kick off and just hope for the best.
The more experienced football traders are willing to be dynamic.
So I am not saying that pre-match data should not be looked at but you should only use it to get an idea of the trade you are going to do.
The very best trades are when they scream out at you and both the pre-match data and in-play data are in agreement.
Now in lesson #3, I want to help with your mindset and show you why you are closer to success at this than you might first think.
I will be opening the doors again to the BIGGEST Football Trading course ever made for Betfair for a limited opening.
The information and waiting list info is below.
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