How To Profit From A Drubbing!
As we all know, it was quite a spectacular turn of events at Old Trafford on Sunday with Man City running out 6-1 winners. I don’t remember witnessing a defeat like that for the Red Devils at Old Trafford and it was one of those “Once in a lifetime” type matches that people will always look back on in years to come. I remember seeing United hammered by 5 goals at Newcastle in 96 and at Chelsea in 99 but nothing like it at Old Trafford.
The Red Card for Johnny Evans did, in hindsight, completely change the game and this is something I have observed a lot down the years. Red cards can lead to games turning absolutely crazy during the final stages of a match, especially if that team has been down to ten men for a considerable amount of time. Players legs can get tired and this can lead to a goal glut in the closing stages as we saw at Old Trafford on Sunday since the players left on the pitch have no energy left to defend against a team of 11 men that are hungry for more goals.
With about 15 minutes left, the score at 3-0 and the odds on Under 3.5 reaching 2, I stuck in a lay @ 2. The game was still far too open so another goal looked likely and Darren Fletcher obliged with a great goal to make it 3-1. I then moved on to the Over 4.5 market and did the same as Man utd were pressing to get another one back but this time Man City scored (dont ask who, I lost track) and made it 4-1. After that, with the odds on Under 5.5 trading around the 1.40 mark, It made sense to play up the profits and go for another one. As we know, Man City made it 5-1 and I did the same again on the Under 6.5 market which was now trading around 1.25 going into injury time and I couldn’t believe it when they got yet another goal. It felt like I had found an ATM machine on Betfair.
I documented a similar match where this happened earlier in the season involving Inter Milan and Palermo and the best thing about this laying strategy is you only need to get one goal and after that you are just doubling and doubling your profits. Its worth looking out for late goals in matches when a team is depleted and the attacking team is hungry to fill their boots.
The Manchester Derby proved very profitable in the end and that was on top of a free £50 bet that the excellent BonusBagging service informed me about. I could have guaranteed about £30 profit but I punted it on Over 2.5 goals when the match went in-play and took the full profit. It was risk free either way and in hindsight Over 2.5 was never in doubt in this match.
The manner of the defeat for Man Utd has distracted away from a disastrous day out for Chelsea down at Loftus Road as they lost 1-0 to QPR and had two men sent off in the process. No late goal glut in this one despite the nine men as QPR looked absolutely hopeless in front of goal and failed to really kill off Chelsea. With QPR trading @ 1.25 with only the one goal lead I decided to lay them even though Chelsea had 9 men and it almost paid off as they went very close to grabbing an equaliser. It wasn’t to be and it was a poor weekend for short priced favourites in the Premier League with Chelsea @ 1.35 and Liverpool @ 1.30 both failing to win.
The impact of those matches has now seen Man City become the new favourites in the Premier League winners market. They are now trading @ 2.20 to win the trophy in May and Manchester United have drifted out to 3.25. It is only October and Man City have no title race experience so 2.20 looks a bit short at the moment.
With Barcelona failing to beat Sevilla on Saturday, there is now a new team at the top of the Spanish Premier League and its not Real Madrid. Little Levante are now at the top after quietly grinding out win after win this season. Last night, I tweeted out a tip on Twitter as Levante were priced @ 4.5 to beat Villareal. The price seemed strange as Levante have been in superb form and Villareal have been the opposite. It proved to be a great bet as Levante ran out 3-0 winners, I wish the markets made such glaring errors more often!
Carling Cup is back this week so I will be having a “Tennis week” and focusing on the tournaments in St.Petersburg and Istanbul. There will be some news about the release of Total Tennis Trading either today or tomorrow too so make sure you keep checking back for more info!
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let me get this right – your advice to profit from a high scoring football match is to continuously lay in the unders market? that is some very radical thinking!
Yes Andreas thats right. So the more goals that come, the more money you make!
The consideration for value?
Well if you lay at 2.0 then you are suggesting that there is a 50% chance the score will remain the same for the rest of the match or a 50% chance there will be another goal.
I didnt think that it was only 50% chance of score staying the same. With the match so open I had it as a 25% chance and that was great value.
Then after the first goal came, the odds were even lower yet the match was still open and so for me the value was even greater.
Then after that, with the odds to lay EVEN lower and profit already being made I decided to see if I could add a bit more profit on.
Did you watch the match? It was attack after attack for the final 10 minutes. So it was anything but wishful!
This isnt about hindsight, its about watching a match and reacting to what is unfolding infront of you.
i understand how odds convert to implied chance thanks.
my point is did you REALLY have this thought process? are you telling me that after City’s 4th goal went in (in the 90th minute), the true chance of another goal was 30% or so? You mention you laid at 1.4 so you clearly felt that in the remaining 2 minutes of the game the odds of another goal were higher than 30%?
and then again, after their 5th goal you mention you laid again at 1.25 – so this time, with mere seconds left on the clock, you genuinely felt there was higher than 20% chance of another goal, seeing as you laid at 1.25?
im not convinced mate, and if you really think there’s value laying at 1.25 for another goal in the 92nd minute of a football match then it will prove to be an expensive misjudgement.
Question – once City’s 6th went in, surely your laying strategy would’ve meant you should’ve opened up 7.5 goals and laid the unders there too?
I appreciate your concerns but you are saying this as if I would lay @ 1.25 in EVERY match I watch. You clearly didnt watch the ending to this match as it wasnt like any ordinary match. With City running in on goal against 3 defenders every minute then, why couldnt there be more goals?
Also, i couldnt lay 7.5 after the final goal as the final whistle went immediately.
I believe that my initial two lays were good value opportunities and after that I had a low risk chance to add to my profits. With money already made, and City running riot, then why not take a chance and make even more money?
If it was value once it went to 1.25 is anyones guess? Are you saying the value was with BACKING the unders market in this scenario?
Maybe you misread the post but I did open by explaining that matches can go crazy in the final stages if a team has had a red card which can lead to goal gluts. This makes an excellent value opportunity in my view.
ok. i did watch this match including the end (funnily enough) and i still cant and never will agree that 1.25 is a value lay for one more goal in the 93rd minute of a match. yes i am saying that 1.25 is value to back. as a side note worth mentioning that just because something isnt a value lay, doesnt make it a value back.
I will be the first to admit I didnt care about taking value for the final two goals. I had already made money for the match and it was a small price to pay for something I thought was very likely to happen again. If I didnt get it right then I would have probably lost about 2.5% of my total profit for the match. Not really a big deal in my view and considering I could see another goal coming with my very own eyes I thought it was worth the punt.
The point is that by taking two good value bets (in my view), I put myself in a position to be able to take chances like that.
If I didnt already have the profit built up then obviously I would never lay 1.25 with a minute left but my personal style is to play up profits within a match and the simple fact is that it works very well for me.