/ / Laying Low This Weekend!

Laying Low This Weekend!

The weekend has been and gone and as usual was not without incident!

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Arsenal
I had a couple of low risk in-play lays that I am quite proud of. The first was when Frimpong got sent off for Arsenal V Liverpool. This match last season saw Under 1.5 goals trade @ 1.01 before losing and with the game opening up after the red card I sensed another opportunity and managed to get a lay of Under 1.5 Goals @ 1.15 matched. I believe it traded as low as 1.08 this time as Suarez scored in the last minute of injury time. The two matches between Arsenal and Liverpool last season both had goals in injury time so it was no surprise to see it happening again on Saturday.
West Ham

Then on Sunday, I was watching the West Ham V Leeds clash from Upton Park. West Ham were pre match favourites @ 1.60 and they traded around 1.25 after taking an early lead. However, it was clear to anyone watching the match that Leeds were still in the game and looked the more likely to score next. I got a lay on West Ham @ 1.25 and managed to trade out at 2.40 when Leeds equalised. West Ham went in front again after that but still weren’t worthy of the lead in my view so I used my green to lay them again @ 1.10 going into the closing minutes. Leeds duly equalised with the last kick of the ball and I don’t think I have ever celebrated a goal from dirty Leeds like that before. 2-2 was the final score.

My view is that its always much easier to find value when trading in-play. The Arsenal match was a prime example as it was destined to be a 0-0 draw until the red card came along. Yet, the Under 1.5 goal odds didn’t actually adjust to reflect what was a completely different game after the sending off. Therefore, there was value to be had.

Ironically, one of my main aims for this season is to actually scale down my in-play trading and focus more on making the majority of my profits from pre-match trading. Main reason is that it will free up more time for myself as weekends are normally spent glued to the screen. I am enjoying it at the moment as its been a while without football but I expect I will start to suffer from burnout mid-season and its all about having a good quality of life and good balance of “work” and play.

There were some interesting moves on the weekend with Arsenal (2.60>2.40), Everton (1.55>1.47), Swansea (2.20>2.02), Fulham (3.25>2.80) being notable steamers in the Premier League. Most interesting of all is that they all failed to win! Not a good weekend to be backing favourites!

pre match trading
Huge move on Fulham and I had a nibble along the way.

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2 Comments

  1. Disagree with your assumption that Liverpool ArSenal was destined to be 0-0. It did seem so but Liverpool were obviously in “holding” mode and as soon as Suarez was sent on it was obvious that Daglish was going for the win. I know it coincided with the sending off but I find these “substitute Points” as another time when great value is available. Liverpool were obvioulsy going to attack the poor defence at this stage.

  2. Sports Trading Life says:

    Hey PDC,

    Thats a fair point, it was actually Suarez coming on which contributed to my decision to make the lay also. Forgot to mention that. If I remember correctly they happened quite close together so up until that particular point the match was destined to be 0-0 but the sending off AND suarez coming on changed that.

    I think if the sending off didnt happen and just Suarez came on I would have just had a lay of 0-0 correct score instead.

    thanks for the comment buddy!

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