The Copa America carried on its trend of being a nightmare for anyone to predict as the shocks continued and both favourites went crashing out of the tournament last night. Colombia (1.90) and Argentina (1.65) both drew their matches, with Colombia losing to Peru in extra time and Argentina shockingly losing on penalties.
Argentina, the hosts for the tournament, were strong favourites to make it to the semi-finals as you would expect. Uruguay were priced in that Match Odds at 7.2 before kick off and they took an early lead in the 5th minute. Their price dropped to 3.1 after the goal and after watching the 5 minutes afterwards it was clear that the Argentines were still fully in control of the match and so I layed Uruguay at 3.0. The equaliser soon came and also a red card for Uruguay, so I made the decision to let the position run a little longer as the Argentina second goal looked closer and I could always green up if Uruguay started to look dangerous.
This was a decision that was soon taken out of my hands at half time as I fell ASLEEP! Not my normal strategy and not one I would recommend either!
Although perhaps, being unconscious is a good way to trade or bet on matches as it takes away all the stress that can be involved with decision making. I expect if I had stayed awake, I would have closed my position and taken less profit, or maybe even ended up losing money since the 3rd goal seemed like a dead cert!
Thankfully, from a selfish point of view, the match ended 1-1 and I woke up to a nice profit and to see that Uruguay went through on penalties. Tevez, who probably has his mind on other things, being the one who missed the deciding penalty!
I did say the other day, that I thought Argentina would win the whole tournament as I “couldn’t see anyone beating them“, well I completely forgot about the possibility of a penalty shoot out which is a situation where, in my view, anyone can beat anyone (unless you are English)!
Brazil are now the new favourites to win the Copa America @ 2.80, but your guess is as good as mine. The way things are going, Venezuela @70 are looking like the value bet!
Tonight we see Brazil (1.66) and Chile (1.77) as the favourites in their quarter finals. Brazil did play Paraguay last week and struggled to a 2-2 draw against them so 1.66 on Brazil is looking like a bit of a silly price.
I have looked around forums and I know a few people have been stung by some of the shocks in this tournament however you do have to remember that you don’t HAVE to bet. If you aren’t completely sure, and I don’t know how anyone can be sure about these matches, then just give it a miss. The new football season starts in a few weeks and you have years worth of form and statistics to go over when deciding on your bets.
My advice would be to just sit back, enjoy the matches or better still, go to sleep instead! 😀
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