According to a recent study by Bloomberg, you should be putting all your money on Chelsea winning the Premier League in this coming season. They have used complex algorithms based on previous seasons’ data to play out the new season 10,000 times and find the averages.
The results of their study suggests that Jose Mourinho’s men will win the title and will be closely followed by Manchester City with David Moyes finishing 3rd place in his debut season as Man Utd manager.
The study also suggests that Crystal Palace are doomed and have a 65.7% change of being relegated next season. This is in agreement with the Betfair markets also with Palace being 1.57 to go down.
To be fair, the results of this study do not actually tell us much that the Betfair markets do not already tell us. This serves to show just how efficient the high interest markets are becoming.
Bloomberg suggest Chelsea have a 35.1% chance of winning the league whilst the current price on Betfair for Chelsea of 3.35 indicates a 30% chance.
Bloomberg suggest Man Utd have a 25.5% chance of winning the title and interestingly, they have been drifting through out the pre-season and are swinging pretty close to hitting odds of 4 which would represent a 25% chance. Manchester United opened at odds of 3 for the title but, after no significant new signings so far, have drifted to 3.85. Clearly, there is not much confidence in David Moyes just yet.
Anyway, the results are below and you can make of it what you want but the results themselves are not exactly eyebrow raising if you are heavily involved in the Betfair markets but it is worth a look nonetheless.
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