I have previously mentioned the main gripe with betting on value and that is that when you get it right you look like a genius but when you get it wrong you can look a bit silly.
There was a great example of this last night as Liverpool were too short @ 1.80 to beat Everton and considering the recent form of both sides Liverpool should have been around 2.20 and I am still scratching my head to work out how the markets managed to price Liverpool @ 1.80.
I had a lay of Liverpool @ 1.80 in the morning but they never drifted or steamed anywhere which was frustrating and by kick off I had a small red screen. So, instead of taking red across the board I tried to play it clever and left all my liability on Liverpool knowing that they should be a value lay at that price.
Unfortunately, Liverpool ran out comfortable 3-0 winners and I felt a bit silly for doubting Liverpool so much. I am just thankful I didn’t take on Liverpool with a full stake. However, if you look back at all the stats in the build up to this fixture then you could clearly see that there was no indication of a 3-0 scoreline and if you did take on Liverpool last night you can only console yourself by knowing you did so at the right price.
Napoli
The return leg tonight between Chelsea & Napoli is fascinatingly poised. Chelsea are 3.35 to qualify and, for me, to qualify they will have to primarily keep a clean sheet which will be a struggle against strikers of the class of Lavezzi and Cavani.
If you do think Chelsea will qualify then you can actually back Chelsea Clean Sheet – Yes @ 3 which might be a better option then “to qualify” market since you will still get paid if the match ends up being 0-0 or just 1-0 to Chelsea. It probably depends on how many goals you think Chelsea could potentially score against Napoli.
I think its likely that Chelsea will win the match and they are 1.80 to do that but qualifying is a different story since a 2-1 win wouldn’t be good enough and even 3-1 would see extra time and penalties. Either way, you have to feel that if Napoli score then the tie is done for.
This match clearly looks like the type where you have to take positions as the action develops. Chelsea could come out firing and make it a famous Stamford Bridge night or they could turn up and struggle to find the net for ages like they did against Stoke on Saturday. It really is hard to tell which Chelsea side will turn up tonight so watching the match develop will be the key on this occasion.
Good luck to those trading this one!
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I had Liverpool as a value lay last night as well, not as big as you but still a lay.
I think a lot of people thought this as well as I was on the betfair forum (possibly Sunday) and people were talking about Liverpool being too short.
However a few people talked about a lay to back when the price drifted, however a few people were adamant this wouldn’t happen and brought up earlier examples where it hadn’t happened after many thought it should of. I have no idea though why Liverpool prices don’t drift but people on this thread were almost guaranteeing it wouldn’t.
Yep, I guess its that famous Liverpool name which keeps the markets in their favour. They drift a lot when they are away from Anfield though.
The Everton team news didn’t do much to force the Liverpool price out. I know Liverpools form has not been great but their performances at home in the last few games have been better than their results suggest. Its on the road where they really do struggle.
The Liverpool name seems to generally make Liverpool too short when they play away.
I thought value lay also. Didn’t trade the match odds but I would have backed heavilly on Liverpool after seeing Moyes’ starting line up.
I think the fact that Moyes left out 6 regulars and almost started with a reserve team was the main reason for the 1.80 SP for Liverpool.
Obviously team news has a huge bearing on price irrespective of what all the stats say – I’m sure 1.80 did look low and a “value” lay but not when you factored in the Everton starting XI.
Stats are a good starting point to finding value but you always need to dig a bit deeper.
Cheers Dougie, I guess it depended on whether that team news was known during the day too!
often in the big local derbys the form book goes out the window add to this the very poor record everton have at anfield over the recent years and imo the result was always going to be for the red half of merseyside
p.s excellent blog loads of interesting topics raised and discussed by yourself on here and some very helpful tips and stats for the less experienced traders/punters cheers steve