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International Ratings Mayhem

The International matches aren’t the greatest for a punting perspective.

Main reason is that its hard to work out just what sort of teams you will be seeing out on the pitch and with most players all having domestic matches this weekend you can be sure they wont be over extending themselves in order to win a mere friendly match and most will be substituted early on too.

As many of you know, I have my own ratings spreadsheet which is normally pretty accurate with the pricing of many football matches on a domestic level. However, when it comes to International matches it is complete MAYHEM with hardly any of the prices matching what the market has to offer.

I am not sure if this is a good thing or a bad thing though. Perhaps, my ratings sheet is able to alert me to some amazing value in tonight’s matches or perhaps I need to devise a better formula when it comes to International matches.  Or maybe it really is nigh on impossible to accurately price friendly matches up.

Here are some of the “gems” that my ratings have thrown up for tonight, make of them what you will:

Greece @ 2.50 on Betfair, “should” be priced @ 1.60

Italy @ 1.65 on Betfair, “should” be priced @ 1.31

Argentina @ 2.10 on Betfair, “should” be priced @ 3.25

Hungary @ 1.90 on Betfair, “should” be priced @ 2.90

Ireland @ 2.40 on Betfair, “should” be priced @ 3.25

If you are betting on International Friendly matches you are pretty much at a disadvantage from the off with no real way of knowing the true prices of the matches. Who really knows how the market is forming those prices above? More then likely its the team news shaping it but even with the teams that play you still cant be sure if they will even be bothered.

If you really are going to get involved then WATCHING the match and forming an opinion is the only way to go with these.

Or better still, just wait for the real stuff to return at the weekend!

Anyway, I am off to trade some tennis 😉

 

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2 Comments

  1. Pete (Omega Betting) says:

    What I found with my own international ratings was I made a loss on international friendlies and a profit on compeditive matches:

    Euro 2012 Qualifiers +0.42pts
    African Cup of Nations Qualifiers +2.54 pts
    CONCACAF Gold Cup +1.07 pts
    Copa America +9.37 pts

    So IMO its a case of friendlies not being suitable betting fodder, rather than international matches.

    Roll on Euro 2012!

    1. Sports Trading Life says:

      Yeah definitely! Friendly matches are a nightmare no matter the level. Only get involved when it means something!

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