/ / How To Increase The Value On Short Priced Favourites

How To Increase The Value On Short Priced Favourites

back the favourite strategiesShort priced favourites are the dilemma of almost every punter. They are often called “bankers” as we are “sure” they will win but risking so much for such little reward is not really worth it. But then again it is a guaranteed win isn’t it? 😉

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Anyway today I am going to look at a couple of strategies that many professionals use to actually increase the value that is available on the short priced favourites. Therefore you will not be risking as much money for such small reward and in some cases you might actually get prices above evens.

Let’s take a closer look…

We will take a real life example to explain this further.

So Chelsea are playing at home to QPR and are priced @ 1.18. You have already decided that Chelsea will win this match but this is not the greatest price to be backing Chelsea at since you are risking £100 to win £18.

However, by looking at different markets you can potentially get a better value price then the 1.18 for little additional risk if you do your homework.

chelsea qpr 1

Dutching The Goals Market

The first question you should ask in this situation is, how many goals do you think the favourite will win by?

To do this you should look at the recent form of the favourite and look at what scorelines they usually win by when facing similar opposition. For example, there might be some strong favourites like Barcelona and Real Madrid who usually win by ridiculous scorelines whilst some favourites usually only ever win by 1 or 2 goals.

So if you think the favourite will win the match but only by 1 or 2 goals then you should look to dutch the “winning margin” markets which can potentially significantly increase the price on offer. These markets are usually best found with bookmakers rather then on Betfair.

The obvious downside is that if the favourite does go on to win by more goals then you expected then you lose but the higher reward is probably worth the extra risk.

In this example, Chelsea have played 4 home matches so far this season and the winning margins have been by two goals in 3 matches and by three goals in 1 match. So from this you could draw the tentative conclusion that Chelsea will win this match by either 2 or 3 goals.

If we used Bet365 to dutch Chelsea to win by 2 goals @ 4 with Chelsea to win by 3 goals @ 4.5 then a £100 bet would win £111 in profit. This effectively means you are now getting a price of 2.10 on a Chelsea win in this scenario.

Even if you decided to add on Chelsea win by 1 goal @ 4.33 then you are still getting a price of 1.42 on a Chelsea win. The only danger being that they go goal crazy and win by 4 or more goals but nothing is ever safe in gambling is it?

Back The Goals Market

So you have decided the favourite will win and from looking at recent form you have decided they will win by 2 goals or more. This means you feel the match will end Over 1.5 Goals and you can often find a better price on Over 1.5 Goals then you can on some short priced favourites. In this example, the price on Over 1.5 Goals is similar to the starting price on Chelsea but just waiting 10 minutes will see this price increase significantly whilst the Match Odds price on Chelsea will remain the same.

chelsea qpr 2

The upside is that you still win the money if the match ends in a 1-1 draw or any other result with more then 1 goal. The downside being that a 1-0 win to your favourite will see you lose but considering how many goals you will be expecting this should be a rare occurrence right? 😉

Back Them In The Half Time Market

Backing a strong favourite in the Half-time market is something many shrewd punters are doing. You will usually find the price on the favourite in the Match Odds market is at least double or higher to win the first half.

chelsea qpr 3
In this case, you can get 1.57 on Chelsea to be winning at half time with Stan James which is 3 times the starting price.

Before you get involved on this market you should look at the recent behaviour of the favourite and see if they are regularly winning the first half in their recent matches. This is because some teams like the “slow burn” approach and only turn it on the second half.

In this particular situation, Chelsea have been leading at half-time in 2 of their last 5 home matches so perhaps this is not the best market to go for here.

Back Them In-Play

This goes without saying if you are a football trader but if you do not like the starting price on the favourite then just wait until something better comes available in-play. If you strongly fancy a team to win a match then them going a goal down early on should not affect your decision too much and this can be a great chance to get an inflated price. Even just waiting till half-time to get your money in can see the starting price increased by 50%.

For example, Chelsea start @ 1.18 in this example but I might decide that I will only back Chelsea at prices above 1.50. In this situation I can usually get this price if I wait till half-time or if Chelsea fall one goal behind in-play. This is a much safer way to approach punting in general as you also get to watch the action to see how they are playing before this.

The main worry is that Chelsea will take the lead before that and you missed your opportunity but then you did not want that short price anyway did you?

In this case, Chelsea were actually matched as high as 2.06 before going on to beat QPR 2-1. This highlights just why so many shrewd punters are turning to in-play betting these days.

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2 Comments

  1. Another fantastic article, if you look at a thread on the “systems and strategy forum” on Punters Lounge you’ll see a fella by the name of Grex who has been backing low priced favourites for the last few years and making money at it too.

    1. Sports Trading Life says:

      Thanks Marc, sounds interesting. It is definitely possible if you are very careful with your strategy.

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