Are The Markets Overrating Chelsea?

When placing a bet on Chelsea during the next Premier League season you might have to think twice about it if latest figures from The Trend Report are anything to go by.

If you had backed Chelsea with a £100 stake in every match during the 2011/12 season then you would have ended the season with a hefty loss of -£1011 and a 26% loss on your investment. To put this in context, the only team that would have given you a bigger loss was bottom club Wolves which is more understandable.

This suggests that the markets were over rating Chelsea massively last season since they won plenty of matches (17) but when they did win it was usually at an average starting price of 1.44.

It is fair to say that last season was not a great season for Chelsea domestically as they finished in their lowest league position for over 10 years which might go a long way towards explaining the poor return if you invested in The Blues last season.

Looking Further Back

So I decided to look back a bit further and see how you would have got on by investing in Chelsea in the 3 seasons before last. The figures below are based on backing them with a £100 stake in every match blindly.

2010/11 – £846

2009/10 +£279 (Champions)

2008/09 +£46

To sum up, backing Chelsea over the past few years has had a negative expectancy and you would have made a total loss of -£1510. The only season where you would have turned a meaningful profit was the 2009/10 season which was actually the season they were Champions scoring 103 goals in the process.

We often talk of the bookmakers deliberately forcing the price on strong teams to be much lower then they should be so they aren’t offering value to the “mugs” who back the strong favourites. In the case of Chelsea it seems the bookmakers have been laughing all the way to the bank in recent years!

After strengthening in the summer you have to expect that Chelsea wont be as poor as they were last season but you can still expect that they will have plenty of low prices attached to them as they will usually be priced odds-on when playing teams outside of the big 6. This data definitely suggests that you might want to be laying Chelsea rather then backing them at those odds!

Anyway, I have been told this is the last snippet I can reveal from the latest issue of The Trend Report, but if you want to read the whole thing then you can grab a copy here!


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