Not sure where the week went but here we are with another weekend of action ahead of us.
This weekend the FA Cup Semi-finals will be the main highlights and both look very tasty on paper, however the reality is that both matches will probably be very tight and, more then likely, decided by a single goal. Under 2.5 Goals is already priced @ 1.75 in the Merseyside Derby but Under 2.5 Goals is interestingly priced @ 1.96 for the London Derby between Spurs & Chelsea. If you saw the recent 0-0 match between these teams you will know just how much respect these teams are giving to each other at the moment and considering its a semi-final with so much at stake you have to feel this one will be just as tight and end up being Under 2.5 goals too. If you really wanted to be safe you could probably take insurance on a 2-1 either way since its unlikely either side will run away with it. (Cue the 4 goal thumping)
The Premier League carries on as normal this weekend and I have spotted a few prices that look a little bit out of wack.
Manchester City @ 1.58 face a must win match away to Norwich. This price is interesting since my ratings suggest they should actually be around 1.90 for this, I expect mainly due to the poor away form that Man City have had in recent months. When a price is this far out of sync you would expect Man City would drift before kick off but I cant say for sure either way. The punters know that Man City have no choice but to go out and try and win this match in order to stay alive in the title race so it wouldn’t surprise me to see more money coming in for them, especially since it is a match live on Sky which means more casual punters will get involved.
The other match involves West Brom @ 2.20 when they “should” be about 1.70 for their match against QPR. Clearly the markets are taking into account that this is a Must Win match for QPR and West Brom don’t have much to play for . As we have seen in recent weeks this can often mean nothing when the teams go out on the pitch and there is good value in backing West Brom at that price for the regular punters. Whether they will take it or not is a different story!
It really does look like it is going to be hard to predict where these prices will end up by Kick off so I wont be taking many positions this weekend and will just see what happens when the matches go in-play. Good luck to all others sports traders this weekend!
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