Should You Bet On Match Odds Or Asian Handicaps Markets?

For many shrewd punters, when placing a football bet there are often 2 key considerations...Do you back a team to win or draw (1X2) OR do you back them in the Asian Handicap markets? This is especially true when you fancy a big priced underdog.
It’s an age old dilemma, like whether you should back a horse to win or each way, so today I aim to tackle this with help of some real life stats. I will aim to explain all and hopefully provide some food for thought on which approach makes the most profit!

Firstly, let’s have a look at the pros and cons associated with both betting strategies, starting with 1X2 betting:

1X2 Betting Pros:

A profitable system finds value, which often resides in the odds offered for the outsider.  This means you’re likely to be betting at bigger prices so when you win, you win big.

Nothing gets the adrenalin rushing more than seeing a team you’ve backed at a big price land the odds.  It’s great fun when things are going well.

Over time, backing at bigger odds will lead to a higher return on investment and ultimately, more profit.

1X2 Betting Cons:

Backing at higher prices means your strike rate of winning bets will be lower, leading in turn to longer losing runs.  Will you cope psychologically when the bad times hit?

You’re going to need a bigger bank to cover the bad streaks.
Now let’s take a look at Asian Handicap betting, which is quickly become a very popular style of punting for many shrewd gamblers.

Asian Handicap Pros:

Asian lines hold more liquidity, especially for those with access to the Asian bookmakers. It’s easier to get bets on at bigger stakes into the market.

Betting on the Asian Handicaps should lead to a higher strike rate of winning bets.  This means shorter losing runs so not such a test of temperament.

Given a good system, using the handicap lines will lead to steady bank growth – the ROI may not be as high as 1X2 betting, but your bank will not need to be so big.  Achievable Return On Capital figures will be much better, and ultimately this means making more money.

Asian Handicap Cons:

You don’t get the adrenalin rush of the big wins – it’s slow and steady wins the race.

Asian Handicap or 1X2 Betting? – Some Real-Life Stats

So that’s the pros and cons of each method out the way, and now it’s time to dig into some real-life stats to get a consensus on the best way to run it.

Based on the superb free football ratings from football boffins Dectech, our very own Fink Tank Football System (available to all Gold/Platinum SBC Subscribers) shows you how to convert their stats into some top value football tips each week.

We have broken down our Fink Tank System into 4 different methods based around 1X2 and Asian Handicap Betting.

The two we are going to look today are the ‘Win Value 20’ and ‘AH Value 20’ methods, which track the profits and loss backing the very same teams but in the 1X2 and Asian Handicap markets respectively.

Here then are some of the stats for these 2 methods:

SEASON 2014/15 TO DATE:

Win Value 20: 107 bets, 21 wins, Profit 4.5 points. 4.2% ROI, 4.5% ROC
AH Value 20: 107 bets, 62 wins, Profit 19.1 points. 17.9% ROI, 63.8% ROC

In the battle between the two methods of betting, it is clear that using the Asian Handicaps is coming out a clear winner so far this season. Better profit, better ROI.

Yet when we take a look at each system’s performance over the past six seasons, the figures change…

RESULTS SINCE 2008/09:

Win Value 20: 1,718 bets, 443 wins, Profit 225.5 points, ROI 13.1%, ROC 225.5%.
AH Value 20: 1,718 bets, 934 wins, Profit 128.1 points, ROI 7.5%, ROC 427%.

Dating back 6 seasons there are more points profit and a higher ROI for Win Value 20.  Yet crucially, a far superior ROC is made by followers of the AH Value 20 system.

ROC for the initiated is Return on Capital or Betting Bank Growth…Basically how much money you can expect to realistically make.

Someone following the AH Value 20 system will be effectively making almost double the amount of profit than the follower of Win Value 20 due to the betting banks required.

And it is that ultimately, which will sway us towards recommending Asian Handicaps as the best form of betting when comparing the two, especially in this example.

Of course, that is not to say Asian Handicap betting will be most suitable everytime, but given the competitive odds and low bookmaker margins it regularly offers the punter a significant edge over simple 1X2 betting.

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