Premier League Winners Market: Should We Oppose Man Utd?
Ah the new Premier League season is finally upon us and we can look forward to another 9 months of drama and entertainment.
As usual, one of the markets of interest for the coming season on Betfair will be the Premier League Winner 2013-14 market. Plenty of tipsters and pundits have had their say on who they think will actually win the whole thing however as sports traders you have to think differently.
Right now you should not be thinking too much about who will win the league in May, but the question you should be asking is actually….
Who will get off to the best start?
We simply need to see if there are any potential trading opportunities in the early part of the season. When trading this sort of market it is always good to look ahead to the next 5 matches for each team that is involved in order to see if there are any opportunities.
Here are the first 5 fixtures for the main challengers:
Chelsea @ 3.25
Hull (H), Villa (H), Man Utd (A), Everton (A), Fulham (H)
Man City @ 3.30
Newcastle (H), Cardiff (A), Hull (H), Stoke (A), Man Utd (H)
Man Utd @ 3.80
Swansea (A), Chelsea (H), Liverpool (A), Crystal Palace (H), Man City (A)
From looking at this, you have to say that Man Utd probably have the hardest start to the season whilst Man City have the easiest.
The best way to look at it is to decide which of the first 5 fixtures are “definite” wins for the said team.
Before anyone comments, I am well aware that there is nothing ever definite in football but we have to make an educated guess.
I would say Chelsea have at least 3 (Hull, Villa & Fulham), Man City have at least 3 (Newcastle, Cardiff, Hull) with the Stoke away match easily winable also. However, Man Utd probably only have one of their first 5 matches as a “definite” 3 points (Crystal Palace). Chelsea at home is never easy and away trips to Anfield, The Etihad and even Swansea are matches that are pretty tricky for any team.
If Manchester United do not beat Swansea away on the opening day, it is quite feasible that they may have to wait until they play Palace before getting their first win which could cause a huge drift in the markets. Since, lets face it, there does not seem to currently be a lot of market confidence that David Moyes is the right man. Only time will tell of course.
It is all ifs and buts right now, however, if asked to take an early position then mine would be to Back Man City @ 3.25 for the opening to the season with a view to trading out before they play Man Utd at the Etihad depending on how both sides are performing by that point. It is perfectly possible that Man City could have just won their first 4 matches and have 12 points on the board by this point which should see that 3.25 go much lower.
Best of luck with whichever angle you decide to take on this market.
There is a long way to go yet!
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is 5 the standard amount you always look at, for winners, relegation and other markets as well.
I think, although I have had success in the past on these markets, my view is too short term. I do it week to week.
I guess everyone approaches different but I would at least want a run of 3 matches to take a position on. Like if City/Utd etc had 3 tricky games coming up while the other has some “easy” ones then it is a good time to enter. These are long term markets so you probably should be looking longer term then week to week for sure.
what would you do then if you these were the fixtures
Utd – Ars (A), Palace (H), Man City (A)
Che – Cardiff (H), Man City (A), Hull (H)
Point being I expect 6 – 7 pts for Chelsea and maybe 4 – 5 for Utd.
But the second games see Chelsea with a hard game and Utd with an easy game. Would you trade out midpoint and re-enter or just expect a move against your position for a swing back after game 3?
Currently I would do a 1 game trade against Utd, then back Utd and then oppose them again. This is where I think I go wrong. But I am unsure how to do it better.
Hmmm, hard to say theoretically since lots will depend on the current situation in the season and there are so many variables also.
I think you should also consider the fact that the markets expect teams to drop points in the tricky fixtures and to win the easy fixtures. If anything, you might get better market swings by backing man utd vs arsenal, laying them vs palace and backing them against City in your example.