With the first Premier League midweek coupon of the season we compare the current market prices to the STL ratings to see if there is any discrepancies and most importantly any value…
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Southampton @ 2.16 to beat Norwich (3.75) looks to be a bit short. Our ratings suggest that this market should be much more even and both sides should be priced @ 2.80. This would suggest there is some pretty good value in backing in form Norwich City or just laying Southampton. This is a Norwich side that has recently beaten Arsenal and Manchester United and got a draw at Everton so you have to feel they are more then capable of getting something from Southampton. Southampton did beat Newcastle on Sunday but that is a Newcastle side who have been decimated by injuries and you have to feel the markets are overreacting on this one a bit. This is quite a strange one as there does not seem to be much other reason why Southampton should be so short for this one and with a match like this you have to hope the sharp money will come in for Norwich and cause a drift on the Saints during the day.
Swansea @ 2.40 are another home side that look a bit short to. The ratings suggest Swansea should be 2.80 for this and their opponents West Brom should be 2.80 also. Considering that you can currently get 3.35 on West Brom then you have to feel the value is with the baggies for this one. West Brom are in form right now and come into this match on the back of 4 wins in a row and a very convincing away win at Sunderland on the weekend. The home form of Swansea this season is not convincing as they have won 2 from 7 home matches. Opposing Swansea in this one is the way to go if you want value, with the current positive form of West Brom we also have to expect money will come in for West Brom from the punters and they will steam during the day.
It is no surprise to see that Liverpool @ 3.10 are too short as usual. Spurs are the market favourites @ 2.40 but our ratings suggest they should be MUCH lower then this. The prices should be Spurs @ 1.90, The Draw @ 3.75 & Liverpool @ 5. If you remember this fixture last season, Spurs were comfortable 4-0 winners and you have to feel that Liverpool have not improved that much since then. Liverpool have actually only won ONE away match this season and that was at Norwich City. You have to be a seriously dedicated Liverpool fan to be wanting to back them at that price when playing at White Hart Lane. The last Liverpool victory at the lane was in 2008 however that was a very different Liverpool team back then with Torres finding the net that day. Whilst the markets keep pricing Liverpool up so short, you have to keep taking them on. It would not surprise me if they got even shorter by kick off either!
Stoke City @ 2 are shorter then they should be but this is probably for good reason. The ratings suggest Stoke should be 2.40 but Newcastle are in the middle of a horrendous run of form with 3 defeats in a row and their last victory coming in October. Newcastle have not yet won a match away from home this season. They are also potentially missing Ben Arfa, Cabaye & Taylor for tonight’s clash. With Stoke getting a win on the weekend it would not surprise me if punters backed Stoke further during the day and this short price could get even shorter.
The markets have the following prices pretty much spot on when compared to our ratings: Man Utd @ 1.20 Vs West Ham, Chelsea @ 1.50 Vs Fulham & Everton @ 2.50 Vs Arsenal.
The Man City price @ 1.55 is quite short too and they should be 1.70 according to the ratings. Man City are yet to be beaten this season so if you did fancy taking them on then The Draw @ 4.6 holds value as it should be priced @ 4. City did not have an easy game at the JJB last season and got away with a 0-1 victory so it could be a tight one once again.
Best of luck whichever way you decide to get involved tonight. Remember, this article is all about finding the value prices and helping you to avoid taking the wrong prices. This is not to be mistaken as being a tipster column or some sort of prediction of the future. Happy trading!
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