Market Reaction To Champions League Draw

It is amazing how exciting picking balls out of a hat can be, yet every year at the end of August there are millions of us glued to the TV in order to see the Champions League draw. This year has produced a few “tasty” ties and the markets have adjusted accordingly.

Here is how the main runners in the market looked BEFORE the draw on Thursday:

Here is the draw……

GROUP A

Porto(POR)
Dynamo Kyiv(UKR)
PSG(FRA)
Dinamo Zagreb(CRO)

GROUP B

Arsenal(ENG)
Schalke(GER)
Olympiacos(GRE)
Montpellier(FRA)

GROUP C

Milan(ITA)
Zenit(RUS)
Anderlecht(BEL)
Málaga(ESP)

GROUP D

Real Madrid(ESP)
Man. City(ENG)
Ajax(NED)
Dortmund(GER)

GROUP E

Chelsea(ENG)
Shakhtar Donetsk(UKR)
Juventus(ITA)
Nordsjælland(DEN)

GROUP F

Bayern(GER)
Valencia(ESP)
LOSC(FRA)
BATE(BLR)

GROUP G

Barcelona(ESP)
Benfica(POR)
Spartak Moskva(RUS)
Celtic(SCO)

GROUP H

Man. United(ENG)
Braga(POR)
Galatasaray(TUR)
CFR Cluj(ROU)

Then this was the Champions League market AFTER the draw:

 

The main move of note was the drift on Real Madrid from 4.7 out to 5.4 as a result of being plunged into the group of death along with Man City, Ajax and Borussia Dortmund. This also impacted on Man City too who drifted from 8.8 out to 11 as the markets see their group as difficult to navigate.

With Man Utd’s group consisting of Braga, Galatasary and Cluj they seem to have a pretty easy route to the next stage. They shortened from 12.5 into 10 which now makes them 3rd favourites to win the Champions League at Wembley in May.

It is pretty hard to see where the value lies at this early stage of the competition, however last season Bayern Munich came extremely close to winning it and should only be stronger for the experience yet they still find themselves priced @ 14. Chelsea won it last season yet are still priced @ 15 which was the same price they were before last season’s competition.

If you are looking for a decent trade on this market you will be better off looking for a team with an “easy” group that are priced above 10 so they have room to move into.

At first glance that team appears to be Man Utd @ 10 and should have no problems qualifying although we all thought the same of their group last season. Arsenal @ 22 could be the best team for a trade. Their group looks reasonably straight forward for them to navigate and Arsene Wenger has an excellent record when it comes to qualifying from the group in the Champions League.  You might want to wait and see how their early season form pans out first though.

It all kicks off in just under 2 weeks and I don’t think anyone can wait much longer either. Bring it on!