Many punters and fans will be looking forward to the North London Derby on Sunday and the general consensus is to expect GOALS.
Everywhere I look, I see people tipping up Over 2.5 Goals in this match and also “Both Teams To Score”. For most people, seeing everyone agree with your view normally makes you feel more confident about your view however in the world of sports trading it normally makes me very nervous indeed!
All the statistics are pointing towards goals and the history of this derby is indicating goals too so this looks like the type of bet that is either a gift or a massive red herring.There have been some great matches between these teams down the years. Just last season there was a classic 3-3 and also a spectacular 3-2 win for Spurs in this corresponding fixture.
The last time this fixture went Under 2.5 in the Premier League was April 2006 when the match finished in a 1-1 draw and I had to go back as far as November 1998 to find the last 0-0 match in this fixture.
So,it certainly looks like there will be goals at the Emirates. My only gripe is that the prices on offer don’t appear to represent value. As you can expect, with every man and his dog backing goals this Sunday, the prices are already lower then they should be. Over 2.5 Goals is 1.75 on Betfair at time of writing and my ratings suggest it should be priced at 1.90 in this instance.
The Value is, actually, in backing Under 2.5 Goals!
One thing I am sure of is that the price on Over 2.5 Goals will keep steaming up until kick off as all the punters will be backing goals and BTTS which should push the price down even more. I really wouldn’t be surprised to see the price end up @ 1.60 on Overs as this is a match that will attract a lot of public money.
Then, even after 5 minutes of the match you will see those odds improve massively and so if you are expecting goals at the Emirates it might be worth just waiting till after kick off to get involved.
Good luck to those trading this weekend!
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