Tennis Trading: Radwanska Exit’s US Open Early

There were a couple of surprise results in the women’s side of the draw at the US Open yesterday. Most notably, the world number 2 Agnieszka Radwanska crashed out beaten 6-1, 6-4 by Roberta Vinci.

Radwanska was 1.40 to beat Vinci but was clearly not at the races in this one after being stunned in the first set 6-1. The markets totally flip flopped when everyone realised just how poor Radwanska was playing, or perhaps how well Vinci was playing?

The 2nd set was a bit more competitive and there were a few great opportunities for trading when it appeared that Radwanska might be able to pull off a come back however it did not transpire this time.

The other “surprise” of the day was the exit of Angelique Kerber. Kerber was 1.25 to beat Errani but ended up losing in straight sets. If you watch tennis on a regular basis you will know that Kerber is not really a player you can be backing at such low odds and to start the match @ 1.25 is the type of price most tennis traders love as it is so low risk and you can be pretty certain it will trade higher at some point.

Well, if you take a look at the chart below you will see that it was a great match for trading especially since the markets kept believing that Kerber would eventually take control of it and Kerber kept going much lower then she should have. For example, when the first set was 6-6 and heading into a tie-break Kerber had only drifted to 1.40 from her starting price of 1.25 by this point.

Surely anyone could see that Errani was more then matching her opponent and the contest was a bit more even then that? Oh well, this is how you spot value when the tennis matches are in-play and long may it continue!