I have had an amazing amount of feedback from those who read the recent post on “Tennis Trading Entry Points” and its all much appreciated. It was quite fitting that we also had a match at Wimbledon yesterday that had more then a few of the examples play out.
The match was between the two German women, Lisicki and Kerber with Kerber starting out as 1.55 market favourite.
The first set was not much to write home about with Kerber winning it comfortably however once the second set began it got very interesting.
As mentioned in yesterday’s article, a great time to enter the market and take on the favourite is when they win the first set and also score an early break in the 2nd set. This sends their odds ridiculously low, especially as it is just ONE break of serve difference.
Yesterday Kerber was trading @ 1.12 after winning the first set and then she scored the first break point of the 2nd set and her odds touched as low as 1.03 since the markets felt she was just going to roll her opponent over. This was a great time to take on Kerber, especially if you have a decent knowledge of Tennis as it is well known that Kerber is a choker having thrown a whole tournament away last week despite having 5 match points.
The illustration below was taken at the end of the second set and shows what happened after Kerber scored the early 2nd set break as Lisicki went all out to get back in the match and she did. Lisicki eventually won the 2nd set but this was not before Kerber missed match points which caused a huge amount of quick fluctuations.
The drama was not done there as Lisicki then took the lead in the final set and had a chance to serve for the match. As highlighted in the Entry Points article this is a great time to lay her. She was priced @ 1.15 when serving for the match but completely choked it and lost her serve 0-40. This is highlighted below so you can see where the price went when she did fail to serve the match out. Amazing what pressure can do to a player!