Welcome to Football Trading – The Yoda Lessons!
In this 5 part blog series I will be covering some of the BIGGEST lessons that newbies must learn from football trading if they want to succeed in the long term.
Each blog post will be released here every day until Friday so be sure to check back on the blog for the latest post!
So the first lesson I want to put across to all those who are beginners to football trading is the lesson of what we are actually trying to achieve as football traders.
This is hugely important since if you don’t know where you are going then you will have no clue how to get there.
And since football trading is such a new concept it is hard to really put your finger on what us football traders are actually doing.
Are we aiming to trade our bets with other traders?
Are we just doing a more advanced form of value betting?
Or, as some would argue, are we just gambling recklessly and some of us are getting luckier than others?
Here is how I look at it…
As football traders my goal is to predict odds movement in the SHORT term.
And we want to be able to predict it often enough that we can profit from it.
And if you think about it like this it should make this game a lot MORE simple to understand.
We are not looking to back winners here. (Many struggle to get this!)
As football traders you can actually profit from the outcome that loses but not many people quite get that judging from the silly comments I get on Youtube.
And I also notice many get value betting confused with football trading and trying to apply “value betting” strategies to football trading actually ends up diluting the “value” you are going for and causes even more problems.
Think about it…
If I am trading in-play and the action is warm and a goal looks likely, as a football trader I want to get into the market by backing the “Over 2.5 Goals” outcome in the goal markets.
If the goal arrives the odds will shorten and I can lock in a profitable trade.
In this instance I have successfully predicted the SHORT term movement of the odds and made a profit.
Whether or not that matches goes on to finish Over 2.5 Goals has NO relevance to me as a football trader.
Whether or not backing Over 2.5 Goals was a “value bet” at that time or at any-time of the match has NO relevance to me as a football trader since I am not aiming to place a value bet.
I could lock in a profit and that could be the only goal of the game and yet I have still “won” on the Over 2.5 Goals market.
If I was betting I would be trying to predict the long term and hoping for the match to have 3 goals to get a win.
And if that was the case I shouldn’t be trading at all, I should just let the bet run.
People often tell me they think there is “value in backing x” but then they go and trade it. If you really thought there was value you should just place the bet and win 100% of what the value odds were offering you.
Similar on the Under 2.5 Goals market, I already know the expected price movement so as a football trader it is all about me getting in and out of the market without a goal being scored in order to make a profit.
I could do this once or I could do it multiple times or even scalp the market.
Whether or not, the match actually finishes Under 2.5 Goals is not my concern.
In fact, much of the time when I trade Under 2.5 Goals, I make my profit early in the match and the match still finishes Over 2.5 Goals.
The value price could have been in backing Over 2.5 Goals in that match but that would not stop me from making a profit on the Unders side when the situation was right.
Which should highlight the big difference between football trading and football betting.
Whenever, you enter a football trade, just think about where the price is going to go in the next 10 or 20 minutes. Or more depending on your strategy.
Do not concern yourself about whether that outcome is eventually going to win.
Another example is with the Lay The Draw strategy.
A common misunderstanding is that we will use this strategy if we do not think the match will end in a draw.
The truth is we are using the strategy if we expect a goal to arrive which will cause the draw price to rise and we can then lock in our profit.
I see nonsense online about only using lay the draw strategy when there is value in the market and the draw price is wrong.
This makes sense from a value betting perspective but not from a trading perspective. We are laying the draw and then backing it to lock in a profit.
Whether the match finishes in a draw or a 5-0 win does not matter to us, most of us will have long switched to another match by then ?
Either way, the idea is look at the odds, then make your prediction about the direction they will move in and get into the market.
If you think a team will score and their odds will drop. Back them, then lay them and profit from the odds movement.
If you think a goal is coming at either end, back the relevant goal market then lay it after the goal and lock in a profit from the odds movement.
Simple stuff but many overthink it.
You will not always get it right but if you can be correct on enough occasions that you end up making a profit in the long term then that is all that matters.
Remember, you can watch the match and use in-play stats to help form your predictions. Anything else is just guessing.
And, final word, please, if you are going to bet then bet. If you are going to trade then trade. Make a separate bank for each if you have to.
But trying to trade a value bet, or trying to value bet on a trade is just going to lead to tears and frustration.
Anyway, in tomorrow’s Football Trading Yoda lesson #2 I will be explaining why most newbies are all doing the WRONG research when attempting to trade football and showing you where to find the best and most important information.
If this lesson helped you in anyway then be sure to share with others!
See you tomorrow!
I will be opening the doors again to the BIGGEST Football Trading course ever made for Betfair for a limited opening.
The information and waiting list info is below.