The best man for the job is, of course,  Mike Cruickshank from Bonus Bagging who does this for a living and makes a very tidy amount from it!

STL: Hi Mike, Any interesting offers for this Saturday?

Mike: Hi Ben, Yes there is a great reload free bet offer with Betdaq. Place a £10 bet on the Champions League Final and they will credit you with a £10 free bet to use in Euro 2012.

To qualify for this offer place a £10 back bet with Betdaq on Bayern Munich to win and a £10 lay bet with Betfair on Bayern Munich .This will lose 50p but will qualify you for the £10 Euro 2012 free bet where you could do the same on any match and lock in an easy £9 profit risk free. This offer is open to anyone and everyone who has a Betdaq account so it would be silly not to do it!

STL: I see Paddy Power offer money back if Chelsea win the Champions League, anyway to lock in profits from that?

Mike: I am afraid it does not look like a great offer from a risk free point of view. The most I could do is lock in a £3 loss.

Another way to play it would be to just back and lay any Correct Score where Bayern Munich win at closest odds possible and then hope for a Chelsea victory. For a risk of a few pounds you could get a £100 refund from Paddy if you went for it. Currently, there are not any close odds though but you might be able to get this closer to kick off.

STL: I see, any other good offers at the moment?

Mike: There is not much else Champions League specific but I expect Euro 2012 will have plenty of opportunities and there is no better time of the year to be bonus bagging. If anyone needs any help with maximizing profits or getting the best new account offers then click here and click the contact page.

STL: It is interesting you say there is no better time to be bonus bagging, I take it things are still going strong. Do you find most people worry this will only be a short term scheme?

Mike: Yes a lot of people do think it’s a short-term scheme.

I frequently email out free bet reload offers that are open to all players. A lot of Bonus Bagging members made £300 during the Cheltenham Festival in 4 days all from reload free bet offers.

I also have no problem with my members sending any offers the bookies have emailed them and showing them how to use it.

STL: It only costs about £27 one off fee to sign up to Bonus Bagging and a new user can expect to make that money back within 2-3 bets. Do you find people think it’s a bit too good to be true?

Mike: Yes of course, there is a lot of garbage advertised on the Internet. This product certainly isn’t. It is the real deal and will make a long-term income. It wouldn’t be on your blog if it weren’t a high quality product!

STL:  You are also encouraging arbitrage too. Is there anything you can say about this side of things?

Mike:  Yes I have set up arbitrage software for Bonus Bagging members. This is an extra £10 a month but is much better than anything else out there, even the £100 a month software.

If you want a betting system that is going to be around forever and make 5% guaranteed profit per bet then arbitrage is for you!

Thank Mike, I expect there will be some people kicking themselves when they realise just how easy it is to make money from Bonus Bagging.

So, there you have a way of making a risk free £10 from the final at least and also, if you are daring, you could use the paddy power offer to your advantage.

Remember, Bonus Bagging really is as good as it sounds and you can easily make an extra few hundred pounds a month doing it. You can try out Mike’s service risk free by clicking here.

With so many people watching it might be hard to find an edge in the betting markets but let’s have a look anyway…

Currently, the Match Odds markets look like this

Bayern Munich 1.83

The Draw 4

Chelsea 4.7

My ratings suggest the odds should actually look like this:

Bayern Munich 1.75

The Draw 4.1

Chelsea 5.2

This suggests there could be a little room for a Bayern Munich move in the markets up until kick off. There is certainly a lot in the favour of Bayern Munich that will encourage the punters to back them. Mainly the fact that they are playing in there home stadium although they wont have as many home fans as they usually will have for a home match.

The important thing to bear in mind when getting involved in a match like this is the possibility of Extra Time & a Penalty Shoot Out to decide it. Many often make the mistake of thinking that backing a team in the Match Odds markets will cover them if they win the trophy but it only covers them if they win in normal time.

I actually had a text from someone telling me they had backed Chelsea to beat Barcelona in the Nou Camp and was going to collect their winnings. Only to find out that he had backed them in the Match Odds market and not “To Qualify”. Since the match ended 2-2 the bet was a loser but as Chelsea qualified he thought he had won so you can see how the confusion came about.

If you want to go for the actual winner then the market looks like this:

Bayern Munich 1.46

Chelsea 3.10

 Suspensions

Both teams have players have missing through suspension for this clash:

Bayern Munich

Alaba

Badstuber

Gustavo

Chelsea

Ivanovic

Meireles

Ramires

Terry

Most will argue that Chelsea have it worse out of the two, with the miss of John Terry particularly significant. However, Bayern will be missing their own version of John Terry in Badstuber and his likely replacement will be Tymoshchuk who is actually a midfielder and someone who might struggle against a strong striker such as Drogba.

 Goals?

Last season’s Champions League final between Barcelona ended 3-1 and it is hard to believe you could have backed Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.40 before the match. That was a bet that was highlighted as being value on this very blog a year ago however it seems like the markets are not being so generous this year.

Currently the goal markets look like this:

Under 1.5 Goals 3.70

Over 1.5 Goals 1.36

Under 2.5 Goals 1.91

Over 2.5 Goals 2.08

Since, the Champions League entered its current format in 1992 there have been 19 finals with 10 finishing Over 2.5 Goals. This would suggest that Over 2.5 goals is currently slightly value but perhaps not enough to be something you would want to take. I actually think that Under 2.5 Goals might steam leading up to kick off so you could trade that or just wait for a better price as soon as the match kicks off.

From the 19 finals, 15 have finished with Over 1.5 Goals. This would suggest you need odds higher then 1.26 to find value on Over 1.5 goals and it is currently 1.36. It might be a short price but value can be found at all ends of the betting spectrum!

 Extra Time?

It is worth bearing in mind that since the birth of the Champions League, no finals have been decided in Extra Time. There have only been 5 that have gone to extra time and all ended up going to a shoot out. If you are trading in-play then scalping the time erosion markets during extra time should be a traders dream since the tempo will be slow and you have the stats on your side regarding goals so you will have to be very unlucky to get caught out.

If it does come to Extra Time then Betfair will open a new market and from a punting point of view it looks good to just back The Draw in Extra time.

 First Half Goal?

A great statistic relating to Champions League finals is that out of the 19 we have had, 16 have had a goal in the first half. This would mean the odds of a first half goal should be 1.18!

You can currently lay the half time 0-0 score @ 3.25 and any price lower then 8.8 is value so this is worth taking a look at. You will probably get a much lower price in-play if you waited till the first attack, corner or free kick to get your money in the market.

 Home Advantage?

The most interesting thing about this final is the fact that Bayern Munich will be playing this in there own stadium. This is something that has not previously happened under the Champions League current format. The last time a similar scenario occurred it was when the competition was, more aptly, named the European Cup and Liverpool went to Rome to take on Roma in the final. Liverpool winning on penalties.

With not much historical data to look over concerning home advantage in a final it is hard to draw any conclusions about how much of an advantage it really is. It is something that can work in your favour for obvious reasons but playing at home can also heap added pressure on the players.

Bayern Munich are already feeling the pressure after finishing runners up in the league to their big rivals Dortmund and then getting thrashed by the same team 5-2 in the German Cup final which is their equivalent of the FA Cup. It is like Chelsea getting thrashed by Arsenal 5-2 in the FA Cup final which would hardly be ideal preparation for a match like this. The German Press are even suggesting that Bayern Munich are under dogs going into this match. Clearly, they have not seen the betting markets!

Good luck whichever way you decide to play the final. Remember, that the facts stated in this article are all based on trends and are no guarantee of how it might turn out on the night itself.

Fingers crossed it does though!

We have our Golf Trading resident John Trafford along to give us the low down yet again. You can back, lay or just straight bet these if you like!

Remember, there are plenty of money making opportunities within the golf markets. Check out issue 2 of the trend report for more details on how to trade the golf tournaments effectively.

Volvo World Match Play Championship

This event is the only one played in the match play format in the schedule. It is used to be played at Wentworth in October and attracted a great field. Since the event has been held in Spain the field has suffered and there are only three players from the top 20 in the world rankings in attendance. The course puts a greater premium on accuracy than distance and putting is always important in this form at of the game.

Charl Schwartzel, Nicolas Colsaerts and Martin Kaymer each have a skill’s profile that should be suited to the host course in Andalucia and this form of the game. Schwartzel and Kaymer are former major champions while Colsaerts is an emerging talent who has the ability to progress beyond where his rankings would suggest. The three players are solid fairways and greens operators and have the temperament to respond to their opponents good play.

Selections

2 points back Martin Kaymer at 8.8.

5 points lay Martin Kaymer at 2.5. (If matched).

2 points back Charl Schwartzel at 12.0. 

5 points lay Charl Schwartzel at 4.0.(If matched)

2 points back Nicolas Colsaerts at 17.5.

5 points lay Nicolas Colsaerts at 4.0 (If matched)

Byron Nelson Championship

After the high quality field at the Player’s Championship the Byron Nelson event provides a winning opportunity for players who have not been regular winners on Tour in recent years. The course at TPC Four Seasons is another that puts a premium on accuracy more than distance, It was the third hardest Par 70 on Tour last year in non-majors. Driving accuracy and finding the greens in the correct number of shots are the keys to scoring well.

Brian Davis, Brian Gay and John Rollins fit the identikit of former winners of this tournament. Each of the three players have good statistical records for the accuracy disciplines and should enjoy the challenge of the greens that are above average in size. They are not regular winners but as most of the leading players take a week off to recover from Sawgrass this is a good opportunity for a big priced winner.

Selections

 1 point back Brian Davis at 46.0.

5 points lay Brian Davis at 5.0. (if matched).

1 point back Brian Gay at 48.0.

5 points lay Brian Gay at 5.0. (if matched).

1 point back John Rollins at 48.0.

5 points lay John Rollins at 5.0. (if matched).

For a more detailed analysis of this week’s tournament please visit www.textbets.net under Golf.

Well, it is always fun to have a look back to see how these turned out and how right (or wrong) I ended up being. Predicting the future is never easy but as you know from reading this blog regularly, the trends never lie and the trend is very usually your friend!

Winners

On August 9th 2011, while most of the country was rioting I looked at the Premier League Winners Market.  You can obviously click that link to read the full article but the main predictions were:

- Back Man Utd To Win The League @ 2.80 and for the trade also – Considering United traded as low as 1.03 and were Champions till the last kick of the season I am sure no one will be doubting that trade was a winner. It is actually at times like this that I thank my lucky stars I am a trader rather then regular punter as I would have felt sick as a parrot to lose a long term bet with the last kick of the ball!

- Back Man City To Win The League Without Man Utd & Chelsea @ 1.90 – It felt like a great bet at the time and looking back on the season it has  looked even better and was never in doubt due to Chelsea’s poor form.

Strangely, I spoke of Man City’s  potential problems with Tevez and Balotelli BEFORE the season kicked off and that was certainly proved right. However, I did say that “I just don’t think it’s possible for a team with off-field problems to win the premier league“.

Well they sure showed me!

Interestingly, Man City started the season @ 5.1 to win the title and it was Chelsea who were second favourites @ 3.90. A year is a long time in football!

 Relegation

On August 10th 2011 with most of the country still rioting I looked at the relegation markets and this was an interesting one.

The main pointers were to Back to Lay on Bolton (Relegated), Wolves (Relegated), Blackburn (Relegated), Wigan (Traded down to 1.20) and Newcastle (Oh dear). Well, 3 out of those 5 teams were actually relegated in the end so you can see that the value was found there. Looking back now, the Newcastle trade does look a bit silly but who would have possibly predicted they would finish 5th?!

At the point that article was written Newcastle were in a bit of a shambles and a price of 6 for relegation looked like it would trade lower but in the end they were the surprise package of the season. Cant win them all I guess!

I also outlined that with Swansea @ 1.72 and Norwich @ 1.85 to go down then

Laying both Swansea and Norwich for relegation will see you make a profit if only one survives at least. If both survive you have hit the jackpot!

Well, if you followed that you would have hit the jackpot and funny to think that neither side was ever in serious trouble either!

Interesting to note that both Wigan & QPR survived this season despite trading lower then 1.20 to go down.

A funny line from that article was “I am even less convinced that manager Steve Kean actually knows what he is doing. I sense another long season for the Rovers is on the cards!“.  Judging by the news this morning, some would say that was right on the money!

Golden Boot

We looked at trends for this part and the golden boot is usually won by a player who plays for a team that finishes in the top 4 and the one that takes their penalties.

This left me with the main tips being Back Wayne Rooney E/W, Robin Van Persie for The Trade and “The main Man City Striker” E/W who eventually ended up being Aguero. At the time of writing it was not clear who would be the main striker for City so it was best to wait till the season started.

Well, whichever way you went with that you would have surely made some money. Van Persie won the golden boot with 30 goals and Wayne Rooney was 2nd. He started the season at 10 and traded as low as 2 during the season. Aguero came 3rd after starting the season @ 15.

In that article there was also a brief mention of Carrol and Torres being in with a shout if they found their form. Well, that never transpired in the slightest till it was too late!

The actual favourite for the Golden Boot at the start of the season was Javier Hernandez, Remember him?

He was priced @ 7.5 to score the most goals but I did highlight that as a price to take on since “I feel that the success of Hernandez’s first season in England was more down to the surprise factor and I expect him to be a marked man in the season to come as many teams now have a much better idea of what he is about.“.

The fact that Sir Alex Ferguson clearly prefers Welbeck to him along with a few injuries also did not help but Hernandez was never in with a shout this season and you do have to wonder about his long term future at United going forwards.

The Championship

Well, this was where things went seriously wrong and I doubt I will ever try and “predict” this most unpredictable of leagues ever again.

I suggested that “Probably one the safest bets around will be to Back Leicester 2.12 & West Ham 2.30 to be promoted!”

Considering, we are now relying on West Ham to win a play off to make that a winning bet it is not looking very safe at all.

In the end, Southampton and Reading were promoted automatically and I don’t think there were on anyone’s radar at the start of the season. Some were actually more concerned about Southampton being relegated then promoted at that point!

The Championship can be entertaining but as an investment prospect it is one to avoid!

Roll on next season!

No matter how many different ways I try to write it, nothing can describe the drama that unfolded on the final day of the Premier League season yesterday.  Plenty of people suggested there might be one or two twists left and there certainly was.

With Man City priced @ 1.15 to win the match and also win the title it was probably no surprise when they took the lead in the 39th minute.  It was much more of a surprise when QPR managed to turn around the match after half time to make it 1-2 to the visitors. They were matched @ 100 during the half time break but by the 66th minute they were as low as 3 for the win.

At this point I think many people watching could actually believe what was unfolding before them. I knew I couldn’t and I was a little bit like a rabbit caught in headlights as the in-play markets were carnage. Needless to say, the Match Odds and Correct Score markets didnt believe QPR would hang on to the victory since with about 10 minutes left the score of 1-2 was still trading @ 2.50. In a “normal” match it would be about 1.70 at that time!

The real drama happened in the Premier League Winners market with Man City’s price to win the league slowly drifting with every passing minute and Man United slowly steaming in from a high of 8.6 at kick off.

Once the match at Sunderland ended, City were still trailing 1-2 to QPR and the markets had United as 1.20 favourites for the title . It probably went lower but as you can imagine the drama was keeping me busy.

When Dzeko pulled one back I “knew” City would get the other goal they needed but the ending was pretty remarkable. If someone wrote this script as a movie it would have probably been thrown out on being too unrealistic. A sensational end to a sensational season.

The screen shots below do not even begin to tell the full story. Looking at the Man Utd chart it looks like they might have even gone as low as 1.05 before Aguero scored with the final kick of the season.

Funny Facts

I am not sure of the starting price of a 3-2 Man City win but I expect it would have been pretty high. A 3-2 Score line for Man City against QPR should not have been that much of a surprise since that was the precise same score they won the reverse fixture by in November.

On the same note we should also have not been surprised by the scoreline of 1-0 to Man Utd against Sunderland. That was also the precise same score from the reverse fixture in November.

One other thing that was confirmed during all this was that Man Utd have now become the shortest price to be beaten for the Premier League after trading as low as 1.03 for the title on April 8th.

A month is a long time in football it seems and it was exactly a month ago when Betfred paid out early on a united win which is rumoured to have cost the bookmaker over a half a million. A silly move it seems but Betfred has done the same before. He paid out early on a Man United title win in 1998 also. Ironically, United never won the league that season either.  Oh dear…

Anyway, We will be back tomorrow and we will look back on the Premier League season and the long term markets in a bit more detail!

If you are planning to get involved then you had better be prepared since there a few teams that have nothing to play for and some teams that have everything to play for which will definitely have you thinking twice about your bets.

Deja Vu

On the final day of last season Wigan traveled away to Stoke knowing they HAD to win to avoid relegation. Wigan pulled it off that day with a 1-0 victory. This year it is Bolton’s turn to do the same.

For the match last season, we saw Wigan steam dramatically leading up to kick off as punters figured that Stoke had nothing to play for and Wigan had no choice but to go for the win. Off the top of my head, Wigan moved in from 3.5 down to a starting price of about 2.20. The type of pre-match move that can potentially pay for your summer holidays and I couldn’t contain my excitement that day as I kept seeing the price move further and further in.

Currently, Bolton are 3.10 for this match. I am not saying it will definitely happen again but all the indications are there yet again so keep an eye out for it.

Just to be clear, the situation for Bolton is they NEED to win as a minimum, then they also need Man City beat QPR which isn’t too much of a big ask.

The Title

The title looks pretty foregone to me since even if City do stumble against QPR, I don’t think the match away to Sunderland for united will be easy.

We often talk about teams having nothing to play for and that can be said of Sunderland but that theory goes out of the window when you are playing against Man Utd. Beating Manchester United can be one of the highlights of your career and you can expect Sunderland will be honest in their approach. Despite most of their team being ex-red devils!

Manchester United are currently 1.47 to beat Sunderland and its another situation where United HAVE to win. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the punters smash that price into about 1.40 by kick off on Sunday. Incidentally, my ratings suggest United should be 1.70 for this but its fair to say rating sheets go out of the window at this time of the year!

Man City HAVE to win against QPR to seal the title and you might think the price of 1.15 on the City win was low enough but you will be surprised at how low these prices can go. City touching 1.12 by kick off is not out of the question. The punters will probably fancy City to give QPR a hammering and cruise to the title so you can expect the Over goal markets to steam and also the Man City handicap.

Over 2.5 Goals is already 1.38 on Betfair which is insane as I think we might get a slowish, nervy start… Cue the 8-0 hammering

So just to be clear on the title race, If City beat QPR they will have the title unless Man Utd beat Sunderland by about 10 clear goals. If city do stumble and draw or even lose then a United win at Sunderland would see the title go to the red side of Manchester.

From the point of view of QPR, they need a draw to GUARANTEE staying up. You have to hope Mark Hughes has the sense to send QPR out to park the bus otherwise they will concede much more then the 6 they conceded to Chelsea the other week. A win for QPR will also obviously keep them up but considering City have not lost at home all season you have to see the price of 21 on a QPR win as maybe being a little bit “short”.

The Top 4

The most interesting in-play market could be the Premier League top 4 finish as with all teams playing simultaneously we could see some big swings if goals go in at the right times.

Considering that Chelsea winning the Champions League will effectively make finishing 4th pointless, you have to expect that Arsenal, Spurs and Newcastle will be doing what they can to finish 3rd and all will be going for the win rather then consolidation based on other results.

Arsenal travel away to West Brom and a point will be enough to secure a top 4 finish.  They are 1.05 for a top 4 finish but West Brom is not an easy place to go and it would not be a huge surprise to see Arsenal concede or struggle to break them down. That low price of 1.05 could trade much higher in-play.

By the way, Arsenal are 1.70 on Betfair to beat West Brom whilst my ratings suggest they should be closer to 2.40 on a normal day.

Spurs @ 1.43 to beat Fulham is a price you could expect to steam also. Spurs have no margin for error as they must win to guarantee just finishing in the top 4 with Newcastle breathing down their necks. If Spurs were to draw then they could be pipped to 4th if Newcastle beat Everton.

Newcastle @ 3.45 look like a good price that punters might have a piece of. Knowing that they have to win to try and get into the top 4 I expect to see punters pile into that price and wouldn’t be surprised if Newcastle were 2.80 by kick off. Everton are in form but don’t have much to play for so the betting public do not have much reason to be backing them but they do have every reason to be backing Newcastle. Another potential mover to look out for.

Dead Rubbers

It is worth pointing out which matches are “dead rubbers” in that neither team has anything significant to play for. If you fancy a bet on these then you might be better off just going into a casino and putting your money on Red or Black!

The dead rubber matches and the favourites are:

Chelsea (1.32) V Blackburn

Norwich (2.24) V Aston Villa

Swansea V Liverpool (2.20)

Wigan (1.60) V Wolves

I wont be touching these with a bargepole and if you do decide to put some money on them then don’t start moaning if you lose it!

Anyway…..

That is pretty much it.

This will certainly be a day when you need many windows open at the same time so you can move from market to market. Also, remember that other results will impact on other matches. For example, if Arsenal are drawing late on and they know both Spurs and Newcastle are winning then you can expect they will just take the point which will secure them the top 4 rather then take anymore risks.

There are obviously many more scenarios and permutations that could crop up which is why Jeff Stelling and co on Sky Sports News could be very handy on Sunday afternoon.

Best of luck!

Have a look at that image above as it is not something you see everyday on the Betfair markets.

There is nothing new in 1.01 being beaten, that is right but very rarely will you ever see 7 figures matched at that price only for it to end up as a loser.

The match between Nadal & Verdasco was superb but there were a few warning signs during it which should have made you think twice about backing Nadal @ 1.01.

Nadal did lose the first set and despite winning the 2nd set and then leading the 3rd set 5-2 he didn’t quite look as comfortable as he normally does. He didn’t look his usual fired up self and you could tell from his facial expressions and body language that something was not quite right. Perhaps, Nadal isn’t a fan of blue clay?

By the way, Nadal started the match as a 1.04 favourite!

Anyway, Rafael Nadal is one of the world’s best and even on an off day he would still probably beat Verdasco but if you watched the match you could probably sense something was not quite right with the world number 2 and for a risk of just 1% why not take him on?

Trading the 1.01

Those who read this blog regularly know I love to lay tennis players at low odds and especially 1.01 since what is the worst that can really happen from it?

You could lay Nadal @ 1.01 with £1000 and only be risking £10. Then back him @ 1.02 with £500 and you now have £500 worth of green sitting on the underdog if he manages to pull off the shock.

Of course, you can just trade out that £500 at lower odds if you wanted to secure a profit but either way you are putting yourself in a position to win a huge amount of money for such little risk.

The worst that can happen is Nadal cruises to victory and you lose the £10 but remember you only need a few of these to make good profits in the long term AND you dont even need the 1.01 to be beaten in order to profit too!

I am not saying you should do this on every match but when you are trading lots of tennis matches you will begin to “sense” when the time is right to do it. Usually whenever the price touches 1.01 with a few games left to go since anything can and anything will happen. (Tip: More likely in women’s matches).

The sheer unpredictability and opportunity to win huge amounts for low risk is one of the main appeals of tennis trading and there is plenty more to come this summer.

Be sure to dust off your Total Tennis Trading manuals or refer to them in the weeks to come because the French Open is just around the corner…

It seems to me like a lot of the usual problems come up such as lack of patience and also cutting the winning trade short just because there is a profit.

I thought it was best to highlight an old post I did with more then a few pointers about pre-match trading. As I know this site picks up new readers on a daily basis and you might have missed it first time around.

So have a good read of THIS POST, and we will be back tomorrow with a look forward to the final day of the English Premier League!

We have our Golf Trading resident John Trafford along to give us the low down yet again. You can back, lay or just straight bet these if you like!

Player’s Championship

The tournament is known as the ‘fifth major’ as it attracts the strongest field in the calender and is the most sought after title beyond the four Grand Slam tournaments. The TPC at Sawgrass favours accuracy more than distance as the rough is penal and the fairways are difficult to hit. Water is a feature of several holes, most notably the 17th which has an island green.

Our three selections this week have proven themselves at the highest level. Hunter Mahan, Jim Furyk and David Toms score well for the accuracy disciplines and so have games well suited to the demands of the course. Toms and Furyk are proven major champions while Mahan is the only multiple winner on the US Tour this year.

Recommendations:

2 points back David toms top 5 at 18.5.

5 points lay David Toms  Top 5 at 3.0 (if matched).

2 points back Hunter Mahan at 34.0.

5 points lay Hunter Mahan at 5.0 (if matched).

2 points back Jim Furyk at 50.0.

5 points lay Jim Furyk at 6.0 (if matched).

Madeira Islands Open

There could be hardly a greater contrast in the quality of the fields on the respective tours. This European event has attracted a field that would be weak even by Challenge Tour standards. However, this provides an opportunity for players who wouldn’t generally contend on the main Tour. The course also favours accuracy and it’s quirky mature means course experience is important.

Our three selections each have a solid bank of course and current form. Each excels in the accuracy disciplines so have games well suited to a course that is below average in length by modern standards. Matthew Baldwin, Bradley Dredge and Magnus Carlsson have contended at a higher level and have a good opportunity to record a win that brings privileges of a normal win despite the quality of the field.

Recommendations:

1 point back Matthew Baldwin at 32.0.

5 points lay Matthew Baldwin at 5.0 (if matched).

1 point back Bradley Dredge at 26.0.

5 points lay Bradley Dredge at 4.0 (if matched).

1 point back Magnus Carlsson at 36.0.

5 points lay Magnus Carlsson at 5.5 (if matched).

For a more detailed analysis of this week’s tournaments please visit www.textbets.net under Golf.

You can also check out the latest issue of The Trend Report for more pointers on Golf Trading and how to trade a tournament for profit.

If you did not know any better you might suggest the match was fixed but in the Premier League its very unlikely that is the case.

On Monday night, a few news sites were reporting that Di Matteo was planning to rest a few key players for their trip to Anfield on Tuesday night. This sent Liverpool’s price crashing in from 2.80 down to 2.40 by the morning and it steamed during the day too, trading as low as 2.12 before the match kicked off!

It was a pretty easy trade and one of the more straight forward pre-match trades you will ever see. When a team is resting players it usually always means they will drift and the favourite will move in.

Value?

At a starting price of 2.20, Liverpool were ridiculously low and not a good value bet to take at all, or maybe it was?

Well in the end they won 4-1 so it was a winning bet whether it was good value is debatable.

Chelsea clearly had no interest in that match and are just waiting till May 19th whilst Liverpool wanted to go out and get a win for the fans on the final home game of the season to try and make up for some of the pain they have been through recently. Revenge for being beaten on Saturday was a key incentive for them.

In the end you had a situation where one team REALLY wanted to win playing against a team that had little interest and clearly had their minds elsewhere. I know plenty took on Liverpool at 2.20 and it was a good value lay under normal circumstances but perhaps this time it was better to listen to the markets and understand just why Liverpool were steaming so much.

It is all good in hindsight obviously and, personally, I didn’t touch the match once it went in-play but wasn’t surprised when I heard Liverpool went 3-0 up.Then again, I wouldn’t have been surprised if I was told it was Chelsea who were three goals up!

This does highlight the difference between in-play and pre-match trading though.

Pre-match trading, in my view, is straight forward when you pick the right opportunities. The punters knew Liverpool wanted the win more then Chelsea so they backed them enough to move the price, this was very predictable.

Once that match went in-play it became very unpredictable  and I doubt anyone reading this would have forseen a 4-1 Liverpool scoreline unless you are King Kenny himself!