Just a few more days till the domestic Premier League action returns and today we are taking a look at how the relegation market has been progressing so far and to see if there are any opportunities around heading into the next section of the season.
The Relegation Market
Below you can see how the market looks with the prices of the 7 most likely teams (at the moment). Remember, there will be 3 teams relegated so there can be 3 “winners” on this market and that is important to keep in mind.
Currently, the markets feel that Sunderland @ 1.31, Aston Villa@ 1.74 and Newcastle @ 2.26 are the 3 most likely to go down this season but you can be sure there will be lots more price movement to come before the end of the season.
Sunderland seem to be involved in a relegation fight every season and started this campagin priced @ 3.25 to go down. However, they are still yet to win this season and sit joint bottom with neighbours Newcastle and have been as low as 1.25.
However, you have to feel that this is the time to lay Sunderland in this market as the recent departure of their manager Dick Advocaat could be a turning point in the season. Every season you will see a team make a really poor start to the season, sack their manager and then start a revival. So it will be interesting to see who Sunderland hire and how they begin to perform going forwards. 1.33 is certainly too low a price for this time of the season and there have been much greater escapes made from far worse situations.
The same can not yet be said about Newcastle United.
They sit right at the bottom of the league but are still above evens to go down. The markets clearly feeling that this team has enough quality to turn things around, however, I feel it might take a change in manager to make that happen. The problem for Newcastle is that they have only just hired Steve McClaren and letting him go so early into his contract could be a bit costly for the owner. Therefore, Newcastle might stick with their manager a bit longer and this could end up getting them in further trouble. Unless something changes very quickly then their current price of 2.26 will trade much lower in the coming weeks.
Aston Villa have never previously been relegated from the Premier League and whilst they have been flirting with relegation in recent seasons it has never gone as close as the final day and you do have to feel that they will turn things around soon. Their next match is away to Chelsea and despite the current problems at Chelsea you have to fancy the points will remain in London there so you have to look to the match after that for a chance for Villa to get a victory which is at home to Swansea.
Another thing going in the favour of Aston Villa at the moment is the fact that the performances have not been totally hopeless and many of the defeats have been quite narrow with every defeat only being by the single goal. Therefore, things could easily turn around for them and you have to expect their price to be a drifter in the coming weeks.
If looking for a back to lay opportunity at the moment then you will not go far wrong by getting involved on any of the 3 promoted sides.
Bournemouth @ 3.3
Norwich @ 4.3
Watford @ 5.4
History has shown that at least one promoted team is usually relegated every season and the above teams have not shown any sort of consistency so far this season that makes you think they are safe from the drop. Watford’s next 5 matches include 2 matches at home to Arsenal and Man Utd along with 2 away trips to Stoke and Leicester. Despite their bright start to the season this could be where things start to get a bit tricky for them and the current price of 5.4 looks tempting for a back to lay trade. You will probably not go too far wrong by backing Watford now and then just seeing where the price is by the end of those 5 matches.
The relegation market looks like it could be just as interesting as the Premier League market this season and it looks like the opportunities are only now starting to pop up. With managerial sacking season upon us there will be some openings for getting involved and you should definitely have a look at the how to trade the relegation market article for more info on how to exploit these moments.