With the International break upon us this is a good time to reflect upon the Premier League season so far and take a look at how the winners markets have been developing.
It is fair to say that this season’s title race has already been far more interesting than the market we experienced during 2014-15 when Chelsea pretty much walked the league with quite a few big moves already.
Premier League Market
Just over £5 million matched already and below you can see how the market looks with Man City leading the way as 1.74 favourites.
The big story from the season so far has, undoubtedly, been the collapse of Chelsea. Jose Mourinho’s side look a pale shadow of the team that won the title so easily last season. They are now priced @ 21 and it feels quite hard to believe that they were title favourites at the start of the season and were generally priced around 2.80 and have had good money matched on them as low as evens. Chelsea’s first stumble happened right on the first day of the season when they started with a 2-2 draw at home to Swansea and their price has been drifting ever since. Their recent home defeat to Southampton has seen their price reach its highest point yet at 21 and, even though it is early, you have to feel like Chelsea’s race has been run.
Chelsea’s loss has been the gain of last season’s runners up Manchester City. Premier League history has often shown that the winner of the league is usually the team that finishes in either first, second or third place the season before which should rightly make Manchester City the most serious candidate this year. They are currently 2 points clear which makes them 1.74 favourites but they have not been a team without their own problems so far this campaign.
Man City actually won their first 5 matches of the season without conceding a goal and, in the eyes of many, looked likely to walk the league this season. Having started the season priced @ 4 they have already been matched as low as 1.38 before we headed into the first International break. A very, very low price considering we were barely 20% into the season.
Since then defeats to West Ham and Spurs have seen this price drift quite dramatically and up to as high as 2.20 when they went a goal down to Newcastle on the weekend but we all know how that match turned out in the end. Either way, you have to feel the markets have Man City priced at about the right price at the moment. There was definitely a huge opportunity to lay them when they went below 1.50 but the markets are being more cautious at the moment.
At the start of the season it seemed like Arsenal and Man Utd would be outsiders for the title but both have shown signs that they are going to have more than a casual interest this season.
Arsenal @ 3.85 in particular look very dangerous and could actually find an inevitable early elimination from the Champions league to be a blessing in disguise as it could leave them with an open second half of the season to really go for the title. Something they do not usually have but that is unless they end up in the Europa League. Arsenal have been matched as high as 9 after their defeat away to Chelsea but the resounding victory over Man Utd has put them into 3.85 and they could end up being the “dark horse” that challenges Manchester City the most.
Man Utd @ 10 feels like a bit of a long shot despite a positive start to the season from them. The main reason is that it seems that they lack strength in depth in their squad. Already this season they have shown signs of fatigue late on in matches and this is not going to get any easier leading up to Christmas. A few injuries to key players like Martial, Rooney or Mata would suddenly make them look very blunt up front and you would wonder where the goals will come from. For this reason I think Manchester United will fall quite a way short and whilst the price of 10 looks tempting for a back to lay trade I don’t think I will be touching it.
Still a long way to go this season but already you do feel that this could shape up to be a very exciting market and could rival the season we saw in 2013-14 when Liverpool went very close and it was a pretty crazy winners market. That season, the surprise package were Liverpool and I feel this season we will see Arsenal take their place in that aspect.
It feels like an open title race and this will mean opportunities galore for football traders so be sure to check out this article on how to trade the premier league winners market to get some ideas!