In football it is often said that “2-0 is a dangerous lead” to have and we saw a few examples of this at the weekend.
Newcastle V Wolves
The first example I would like to highlight was the match between Newcastle and Wolves. Newcastle were strong favourites going into this match priced @ 1.50 after steaming from 1.65 during the week. Then, Newcastle go 2-0 up by the 18th minute and the match appears to be over.
Well, one of the reasons why people say 2-0 is a dangerous lead to have is that, when you get the lead early, you might be in a position where you don’t quite know what to do next.
From my football playing days, I remember the times you go 2 goals up early and then you aren’t sure if you should press for more goals or try and contain. Some players want more goals, whilst some want to contain and the manager on the touchline is normally a little bit confused too. This can potentially be a recipe for disaster with certain teams. I would venture to say that “seeing a match through” is the type of thing that only potential champions can do on a regular basis which is why you rarely ever see a team like Man utd throw away a big lead.
Back to the match in question, and there is a reason why Newcastle United aren’t potential Champions and its the fact that they don’t know how to close games out and see them through to the end. I wasn’t watching the match but from the highlights it looked like Newcastle weren’t quite sure what to do once they got the 2 goal lead and they began to let Wolves back into the game. Don’t get me wrong, Newcastle are a good side but they aren’t used to winning matches so easily and it showed.
At half time, Newcastle were trading @ 1.05 and I was tempted to lay it but since I didn’t have a live feed I couldn’t be too sure. So, you can only imagine how gutted I was when Wolves pulled it back to get a 2-2 draw. From the looks of the highlights, I would have definitely had a lay of Newcastle at those low odds if watching as Wolves went close a good few times in the first half.
Arsenal 5 V 2 Spurs
As we all know, Spurs went 2-0 up against Arsenal and ended up losing 5-2.
The build up to the match was strange as Arsenal’s price steamed in from 2.60 down to 2.40 by kick off and this made Spurs drift too. I say it was strange since all the media build up to kick off was focusing on how poor Arsenal have been recently and how brilliant Spurs have been. Normally, this influences the markets but not in this case.
Anyway, this match was another example of why 2-0 can be a dangerous lead to have but for a slightly different reason to the former. Going back again to my football days, when you went 2-0 up you “mentally” felt like the match was won which was especially dangerous when it was early in the match. So, if the trailing team pulled one goal back to make it 2-1 then it was a massive mental test as all of a sudden you were one goal away from not even winning a match you thought you were going to win easily.
The momentum is then with the team trying to create the comeback and in some matches the equaliser is normally inevitable. The match between Arsenal and Spurs yesterday was a prime example of this as once Sagna pulled it back to 1-2 you could just see that Spurs were panicking a little bit and then once it went 2-2 so quickly they looked beaten before half time!
I know its easy to say in hindsight, but I said at half time to the people watching with me that now Arsenal would go on and win this since Spurs had mentally lost it. Its really hard to pick yourself up after losing a 2-0 lead and the momentum, and the smart money, was on Arsenal going into the second half.
The match really was an in-play traders dream. Spurs started the match priced @ 3.25 and traded as low as 1.29 when they went 2-0 up. Arsenal traded as high as 30 to go on and win it at that point and were still 2.54 when it was 2-2 at half time. The warning signs were there since both these matches last season saw a team throw away a 2 goal lead. Arsenal threw it away when 2-0 up at half time in the clash at the Emirates and Arsenal also did the same from 3-1 up at White Hart lane.
Many have said they haven’t seen a match like it but I beg to differ… April 2009, Spurs went 2-0 up at Old Trafford against Man utd and lost that day too. 5-2!
Going back even further and you might remember a time in 2001 when Spurs went 3-0 up against Man Utd by half time and ended up losing that one … 5-3!
If you are a spurs fan you will probably never feel comfortable seeing your team race away to an early lead!
Is 2-0 really a dangerous lead?
You might be reading this thinking that you should go on Betfair and start laying every team that goes 2-0 up but I guarantee you will be wasting your time.
The key to profiting from these situations is pick them out and not do it blindly. If you are watching a match and a team goes 2-0 up early in the game then keep an eye on how it develops after the 2nd goal. Look out for signs that the team in the lead is sitting back and inviting the trailing team to get one back and also consider the teams previous record. As mentioned, sides like Man Utd rarely give away 2 goal leads but teams like Newcastle and Spurs have plenty of previous in these scenarios if you look back on the last couple of seasons.
It is also worth pointing out that as traders we don’t even need the whole comeback to be completed in order to profit. Sometimes, just laying low in anticipation that the leading team might concede a goal is enough. For example, Spurs were priced @ 1.29 when leading 2-0 and then when Arsenal pulled it back to 2-1 they were priced @ 1.65, which could have been a pretty decent trade on its own. You also have the option of simply removing all liability to have a risk free shot at the comeback being completed which is the option I often like to take.
But is 2-0 really a dangerous lead to have? I would suggest that it isn’t since, its a much better lead to have then 1-0 or 2-1 but any lead is a dangerous lead to have if you don’t know how to hang on to it.
I actually read a study into this a few years ago which suggested that this was a myth and if a team was leading 2-0 then they would go on and win the match an average of 90% of the time. This would suggest average odds of 1.10 on a team leading 2-0 which is pretty close to what you will see in many matches. I did google around to see if I could dig up that study and link to it but had no joy. Either way, I think we can be sure that when a team does go 2-0 up it doesn’t mean they are going to lose their lead just because its 2-0!
Best thing to do from your point of view is to watch the match and absorb yourself into it. It’s then easy to spot when someone has lost it mentally and you can swoop in and profit! I don’t think anyone watching the North London Derby would have been backing Spurs at half time after what had happened.
