Well my trading plan for the US open final has been thrown out of the window!
Last night at 9pm I had my plan completely set out for this match and it was to back Rafael Nadal at his odds which were around 1.37. I was going to exit at around 1.10 and obviously get out if the match wasn’t going the way of the Spaniard. However, the rain completely messed up my plan and the match was postponed till today!
You may be thinking well the match is being played today so just do the same thing right?
Well the main reason I was going to back Rafael Nadal at that price was the fact that Djokovic had just come off the back off a tremendous game against Roger Federer and I expected he might be feeling slightly weary and against a fresh Rafael Nadal I could only see one winner. However, now Djokovic has had an extra days rest this has levelled the playing field a little bit. The markets seem to agree and the price on Rafa has drifted slightly to 1.40, but that’s not enough for me to want to back him from the start.
Now I have to ask the question, is Rafael Nadal too short?
Surely if I can’t back him at that price then I should be laying him from the start? However, I actually wont be doing either as the simple truth is I am not completely sure what angle to take on this match now. Perhaps I might see how the first set goes and make an entry some point during the match but otherwise my motto is always that if you’re not sure, don’t do it. My early days as a trader were full of times were I traded games for the sake of it and my Betfair account didn’t thank me for it.
Think I am going to put my feet up and enjoy this one as plenty of champions league football this week that I can get involved in!